乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼?，化?芳烃强烯烃弱的产业链格局未变

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry shows a continued differentiation. The polyester industry chain is in a seasonal off - peak, while the styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall [2]. - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, and liquid chemical inventories are high, so the chemical industry's rebound will be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures are in a Christmas holiday. Domestic SC has been relatively strong recently, and its near - end structure has turned back to Back. Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Cold snaps in China may boost coal demand [1]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester and weaving开工 continue to decline. PTA开工 increases by 0.7% month - on - month, and ethylene glycol开工 increases by 0.2% month - on - month. The industry chain remains relatively healthy [2]. - PTA: The market is testing the downstream's ability to bear low processing fees. Prices follow costs to oscillate at high levels, and processing fees remain within a range. Consider going long on the TA05 contract on pullbacks and taking partial profits around 5100 - 5200. Also, consider a positive spread trade on TA05 - 09 [14][15]. - Short - fiber: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits. Prices follow the upstream to oscillate strongly, and processing fees are under short - term pressure [24][25]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw material costs support prices. The absolute value follows raw materials to fluctuate, and processing fees are slightly under pressure [26]. 3.2.2 Styrene Industry Chain - The styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Its own开工 increases by 2.25% month - on - month, and downstream开工 also rises, especially the weekly开工 of PS increases by 4.1% [2]. - Styrene: Exports affect the market, and it is strong intraday. It is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in destocking. Exports can stimulate short - term rebounds [19][20]. 3.2.3 Polyolefin Industry Chain - Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall. A 500,000 - ton full - density plant in South China has started trial production, increasing pressure on PE. Low - price promotions by upstream suppliers have led to a decline in the overall inventory of production enterprises in the industry chain [2]. - PP: Basis support is limited, and it oscillates. The supply - demand pattern remains under short - term pressure [35]. - LLDPE: Maintenance needs time to increase, and it oscillates. The demand is gradually entering the off - peak season [34]. 3.3 Variety Analysis - Crude Oil: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating, and it continues to oscillate. The market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [8]. - LPG: The strong reality is weakening. Pay attention to the implementation of downstream production cuts [3]. - Asphalt: The US is containing Venezuela without taking direct action. Its futures price oscillates higher. The absolute price is over - estimated [9]. - High - sulfur Fuel Oil: Its futures price oscillates higher. The demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [9]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Its futures price oscillates higher. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, but its current valuation is low [9]. - Methanol: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market remains stable. It is generally considered to oscillate [3][29][30]. - Urea: Demand follows up, and sentiment is boosted. The price rises and then oscillates. Supply pressure persists, and demand support may not be long - lasting [30][31]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and there is no continuous positive news. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains large [21][22]. - PX: Short - term sentiment fermentation takes time. It remains high in China, but downstream negative feedback may increase as the off - peak season deepens [13]. - PVC: Overseas production capacity is exiting, and it is supported again. Although supply has improved marginally, the rebound space may be limited [37][38]. - Caustic Soda: Market sentiment has weakened, and it oscillates downward. The medium - term fundamental outlook is poor, but the valuation is low [39][40]. 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring 3.4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 being 0.44 with a change of - 0.07, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 52 with a change of 30 [42]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt's basis is - 75 with a change of 1, and its warehouse receipts are 54,100 [43]. - Inter - variety Spreads: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 218 with a change of - 3 [45]. 3.4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part. 3.5 Index Data - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index is 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index is 2254.18, down 0.17% [287]. - The energy index on December 25, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.23%, a 5 - day increase of 3.15%, a 1 - month decline of 0.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.00% [289].