中原期货晨会纪要-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the integer mark of "7" during intraday trading, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to appreciate next year, but there will be no unilateral trend [7]. - After the collective frenzy of LOFs, the capital speculation subsided. On December 25, multiple LOFs either hit the daily limit down or fell sharply, and many fund companies announced the upgrade of LOF purchase restrictions [7]. - JD's 92% of employees will receive full or excess year - end bonuses, with the total investment in year - end bonuses increasing by more than 70% year - on - year. There have also been rumors of salary increases at companies like BYD, ByteDance, and CATL [8]. - The central bank over - renewed MLF and conducted outright reverse repurchases in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity. There is a possibility that the central bank may increase its purchase of treasury bonds to hedge against seasonal fluctuations in liquidity at the end of the month [8]. - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has made solemn representations to the US. China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding rare - earth magnet export restrictions [9]. - The A - share market showed a rebound pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving seven consecutive positive daily K - lines. The three major indices have all broken through their previous highs, but as the Shanghai Composite Index approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase [17][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Commodity Price Changes - Chemical Industry: On December 26, among chemical products, 20 - number rubber, (PTA), asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil prices rose, while others such as coking coal, coke, and natural rubber fell [4]. - Agricultural Products: On December 26, most agricultural product prices rose, including yellow soybean No. 1, yellow soybean No. 2, and cotton No. 1 [4]. 2. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - Sugar: On December 25, the sugar price fluctuated within a narrow range. There are both supply pressure and cost support. It is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited [11]. - Corn: On December 25, the corn price continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is in a stage of releasing supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to maintain a weak bottom - side oscillation [11]. - Peanuts: On December 25, the peanut futures price fluctuated slightly downward. The current supply of oil - type peanuts is loose, and the price may maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [11]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs increased slightly. The futures price showed signs of stabilizing, maintaining a bottom - side oscillation pattern with weak rebound opportunities [11][12]. - Eggs: The national egg spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The futures price showed a strong performance, and the month - to - month spread reverse arbitrage should be held [12]. - Cotton: On December 25, the cotton price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's bullish factors are dominant, and it is recommended to consider going long at dips near the short - term moving average [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda market maintains an oversupply pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment changes [12]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [12]. - Logs: The log market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance at the pressure level, and if it cannot break through, consider range trading [13]. - Pulp: The pulp market has supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to maintain range oscillation [13]. - Offset Printing Paper: The price of offset printing paper has strongly broken through the key pressure level, and the short - term strength may continue [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper and aluminum markets continue to operate at high levels, and attention should be paid to macro risks [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market maintains an oversupply pattern and may continue to operate weakly in the medium term [16]. Steel and Iron Alloys - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The black - series market continues to oscillate and adjust, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [16]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market showed a strong short - term trend, but high - level chasing is not recommended [16]. Others - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is at a high level, and the market volatility risk has increased. It is recommended to operate with caution [16][17]. 3. Option and Financial Market - Stock Index Options: On December 24, the three major A - share indices rose slightly. The trading volume PCR of some options decreased, and the weighted implied volatility decreased. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell the wide - straddle strategy to short volatility [17]. - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved seven consecutive positive daily K - lines, and the rebound pattern continues. As it approaches the annual high, the pressure will increase. It is recommended to focus on the policy main line to find investment opportunities [17][18].