山金期货黑色板块日报-20251226

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The black market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season. The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate upwards, and the iron ore 05 contract remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation. It is recommended to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and demand: This week, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, the total output of five major varieties decreased, and overall inventory continued to decline. Rebar's apparent demand decreased, while hot - rolled coil's increased, but the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - Cost support: Recently, coal and coke prices have rebounded significantly, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - Technical analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly. It has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [2] - Data details: - Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes; for example, the rebar main contract closing price was 3127 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.29%) from the previous day and up 2 yuan (0.06%) from last week [2] - Production: The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 181.68 million tons, up 2.90 million tons (1.62%) from last week; hot - rolled coil production was 291.91 million tons, down 16.80 million tons (- 5.44%) [2] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major varieties was 872.56 million tons, down 33.91 million tons (- 3.74%) from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the overall output and apparent demand of five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, molten iron production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts suppress raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year [3] - Supply: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price. The market has fully digested the building steel production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management [3] - Technical analysis: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range high - level oscillation [3] - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions and conduct mid - term trading [3] - Data details: - Prices: The DCE iron ore main contract settlement price was 778.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.0 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous day and up 1.0 yuan (0.13%) from last week [4] - Shipments: Australian iron ore shipments were 1703.9 million tons, down 60.2 million tons (- 3.41%) from last week; Brazilian shipments were 747.6 million tons, down 71.9 million tons (- 8.77%) [4] - Inventory: Port inventory totaled 15512.63 million tons, up 81.21 million tons (0.53%) from last week [4] 3. Industry News - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from the settlement on December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves [6] - Mysteel research shows that the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 18 yuan/ton [6] - As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory increased, social inventory decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, and apparent demand decreased [6] - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples decreased by 2.4% to 84.2% this week [7] - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [7] - The chairman of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation believes that China's steel product export license requirements cannot effectively suppress steel exports or boost steel prices [8]