Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector is bullish [2] Core View - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise. The expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year stimulate the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined. Overall, a bullish view is maintained on Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term correction risks should be alerted [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - ICE March contract settlement price rose 23 points, May contract was at 65.49 (up 29 points), July contract was at 66.58 (up 31 points), with a trading volume of about 26,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 452,688 lots, and the open interest was 1,132,769 lots. The settlement prices were 14,255 yuan/ton for January, 14,215 yuan/ton for May, and 14,380 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from October (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease from the same period last year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease from the previous year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to December 18, the United States graded and inspected 19.93 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 242.43 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. The CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise due to the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year, which stimulates the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, and partially take profits on the long futures positions [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20251226
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-26 01:54