豆粕:震荡,等待外盘进一步指引,豆一:豆类市场氛围影响,震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-26 02:02
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for soymeal is to oscillate, waiting for further guidance from the external market; the outlook for soybeans is to oscillate under the influence of the overall soybean market atmosphere [1]. - This week, the soybean market witnessed a typical Christmas rally. On Wednesday, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up over 10 cents per bushel. After a one - day closure on Thursday, soybean futures trading resumed on Friday, with the focus remaining on South American weather [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - DCE Soybean 2605 closed at 4,125 yuan/ton during the day session, up 19 yuan (+0.46%), and 4,128 yuan at night, up 15 yuan (+0.36%). - DCE Soymeal 2605 closed at 2,760 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.77%), and 2,776 yuan at night, up 37 yuan (+1.35%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot - In Shandong, the soymeal (43%) price was 3,080 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months compared to M2605, mostly unchanged from the previous day. - In East China, prices in different regions and for different enterprises ranged from 3,020 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with various basis levels and changes compared to the previous day. - In South China, prices were 3,070 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with differences in basis levels and changes compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soymeal was 10.46 million tons per day, down from 16.49 million tons two days ago. - The inventory of soymeal was 105.63 million tons per week, up from 100.92 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Due to public holidays, the markets in the US, Canada, and Malaysia were closed on Thursday, and there was no agricultural product daily review. - This week, the soybean market had a Christmas rally. After the closure on Thursday, trading resumed on Friday, and the focus was on South American weather [1][3]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - In the coming days, Rio Grande do Sul will experience heavy rainfall, while rainfall in Mato Grosso will be irregular. - According to the GFS model, moderate rainfall is expected in many areas of Brazil in the next 10 days, and heavy rainfall is expected in some areas. High temperatures are also being closely monitored as soybeans in the growth - critical period need suitable climate conditions. From Thursday to at least Saturday, national temperatures are expected to remain high [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal is 0; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3].