综合晨报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - Crude Oil: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - Asphalt: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - Precious Metals: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - Base Metals - Copper: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - Aluminum: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - Alumina: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - Zinc: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - Lead: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - Tin: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - PX & PTA: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - Vegetable Oils: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - Corn: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - Pigs: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - Eggs: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - Cotton: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - Sugar: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - Apples: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - Industrial Silicon: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - Iron Ore: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - Coke & Coking Coal: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - Container Shipping Index (Europe Line): The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - Urea: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - Methanol: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - Pure Benzene: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - Styrene: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - Paper Pulp: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - Stock Index: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - Treasury Bonds: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].