春山在望，博弈加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for lithium carbonate [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resource market will show a pattern of high growth in both supply and demand, with a static surplus of about 112,000 tons of LCE. However, due to the low inventory levels in each link and the high growth in demand, there may be short - term mismatches, and the industry is expected to be in a tight balance. It is recommended to shift the overall strategy from wide - range fluctuations to long - term long positions on dips, with the lithium carbonate main contract expected to trade in the range of 80,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2][3][114] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a V - shaped trend. It bottomed out under pessimistic expectations and rebounded due to short - term supply - demand mismatches. The price fluctuated significantly, starting from 75,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, dropping to a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in the middle of the year, and then rebounding to around 120,000 yuan/ton recently [15] 2. Supply Side 2.1 Resource End - In 2025, the global lithium resource output was about 1697,000 tons of LCE, with a year - on - year growth rate of 31%. Australia's spodumene and South American salt lakes were the main sources, and the increase was mainly due to the expansion and production ramp - up of projects such as Pilbara's P1000, SQM's Atacama, etc. In 2026, it is expected to be a year of concentrated production increase, with an estimated output of 21.8 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons of LCE, and a growth rate of 27.3%. China, Argentina, Australia, and Africa will contribute the main increments [19][20] 2.2 Lithium Salt End - In 2025, the output efficiency of domestic lithium salt plants was affected by resource tightness, and the profit of the spodumene processing end was difficult to expand significantly. The total inventory days of domestic lithium concentrate dropped to a low level, about 2.6 months. From January to November, the domestic output of lithium carbonate was 871,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%, and the output of lithium hydroxide was 276,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [43][45][54] 2.3 Lithium Salt Import - From January to November 2025, China imported 219,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Chile and Argentina were the main import sources. Chile's exports of lithium salts to China decreased, but the export of lithium sulfate increased, offsetting part of the decline. In 2026, the export volume of Chile and Argentina is expected to increase, but the proportion of exports to China may decline slightly [56][57] 3. Demand Side 3.1 New Energy Vehicles - In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased significantly, with a penetration rate of about 47% throughout the year. Pure - electric vehicles accounted for about 65%. In 2026, affected by the reduction of purchase tax subsidies, the growth rate of power demand will be restricted, but policies such as trade - in subsidies will provide support. It is estimated that the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach about 23.78 million in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global power cell consumption is expected to reach 1600GWh, a year - on - year increase of 25% [2][64][84] 3.2 Energy Storage - In 2025, the 136th document promoted the market - oriented development of the energy storage industry. The domestic energy storage industry showed strong growth, and overseas markets also had high growth rates. It is estimated that the global new energy storage installed capacity will reach 110GW/330GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 27.9%/47.6%. The lithium salt demand will reach 553,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 46.6% [90][102][103] 3.3 Material Factories Actively Replenish Stocks, and Terminal Inventories Remain at a Low Level - In 2025, the inventory of downstream materials and cells remained at a low level. The inventory turnover days of LFP cathode materials were about 0.8 months, and the inventory days of ternary materials increased to nearly 1.5 months. The inventory days of power and energy storage cells decreased to 1.2 and 0.7 months respectively at the end of 2025. In 2026, the low inventory level will support the apparent demand for lithium salts [105] 4. Supply - Demand Balance and Investment Suggestions 4.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, the surplus of lithium resources was about 48,000 tons of LCE. In 2026, the global static surplus is estimated to be about 110,000 tons of LCE, and the domestic lithium carbonate supply will be slightly surplus by 10,000 tons, showing a tight supply - demand balance [114][117] 4.2 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to shift the overall strategy from wide - range fluctuations to long - term long positions on dips. The operating range of the lithium carbonate main contract in 2026 is expected to be 80,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. For arbitrage, continue to focus on the arbitrage opportunities between the warehouse receipt cancellation month and the adjacent contracts, and after the listing of lithium hydroxide, there will be more cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [3][121][122]