Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - Stock Index Futures: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - Precious Metals: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [12][13]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: May continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [17]. - Ferroalloys: Overall surplus pressure persists. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when spot losses expand [20][21]. - Crude Oil: With high uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [24]. - Fuel Oil: The cost end is stable, but there is a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - Polyolefins: The market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to oscillate [32][34]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to oscillate with a multi - empty game [35][36]. - PVC: The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to changes in the supply side [37][38]. - Urea: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [38][39]. - PX: May adjust in a slightly stronger oscillatory manner in the short term. Pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [40]. - PTA: The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good. Investors can consider participating at low levels following the cost end and control risks [41]. - Ethylene Glycol: May maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can participate within a range and be cautious about the upside [42][44]. - Short - Fiber: May oscillate following raw material prices. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. - Bottle - Grade PET: Expected to follow the cost end. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly [46]. - Lithium Carbonate: There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. - Copper: Prices will remain at a high level, but be cautious about chasing the rise [48][49]. - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. - Zinc: Expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - Lead: Expected to oscillate weakly within a range [54][55][56]. - Tin: Expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner [57]. - Nickel: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [58]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Soybean meal can focus on long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can consider long - buying opportunities for call options in the low - level range [59][60]. - Palm Oil: It is recommended to wait and see [61][63]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to be strong [66][69][70]. - Sugar: After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [71][74][75]. - Apples: Prices are expected to be strong [76][77][78]. - Hogs: It is recommended to wait and see, and continue to track the large - weight hog slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [79][80]. - Eggs: Consider a positive spread strategy [81][82]. - Corn and Starch: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.24%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - Policy and Macroeconomic Situation: The central bank carried out a 400 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The RMB against the US dollar has appreciated. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.97%, and 1.16% respectively [7]. - Industry News: In November 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and 5G mobile phones accounted for 91.6%. From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps completed the annual plan [7][8]. - Market Analysis: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased [8]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: The main contract of gold closed at 1,008.76, with a decline of 0.58%; the main contract of silver closed at 17,397, with a decline of 1.20% [10]. - Market Analysis: The complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying supports the price, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,180 - 3,310 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,260 - 3,280 yuan/ton [12]. - Market Analysis: In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market will enter the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory consumption speed is fast [12][13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: Iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 670 yuan/ton [15]. - Market Analysis: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with imports increasing year - on - year, domestic production lower than last year, and port inventory at the highest level in the past five years [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated narrowly [17]. - Market Analysis: For coking coal, production has decreased in December, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, the third - round price cut of spot procurement has started. Coking enterprises' operations are stable, but environmental protection has increased restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The main contract of manganese - silicon rose 0.48% to 5,846 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon - iron rose 0.85% to 5,692 yuan/ton. Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 5,650 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price remained flat at 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - Market Analysis: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the supply of Australian ore has returned to normal. The cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus pressure persists [20][21]. Crude Oil - Market News: As of the week ending December 9, fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the second consecutive week. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to widen [22][23]. - Market Analysis: The reduction of net short positions by US funds indicates short - covering. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers are beneficial to oil prices, but the Russia - Ukraine peace talks increase the uncertainty of oil prices. It is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [22][24]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Fuel oil oscillated upward and closed above the 20 - day moving average [26]. - Market Analysis: The Asian fuel - oil market is generally stable, and the spot price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a discount. The cost end is stable, and there is a large rebound space [26][27][28]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: The low - end prices in the Hangzhou PP market rebounded slightly, and the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market increased by 30 - 120 yuan/ton [30]. - Market Analysis: Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply - side pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly. Downstream factory operating rates are expected to decline, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Near the end of the month and the year, enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory by lowering prices [30]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.76%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 11,750 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [32]. - Market Analysis: The price of raw material butadiene has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost support. The supply is abundant, but the demand from downstream tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory in mainstream warehouses has decreased, while the social inventory has continued to accumulate [32][33]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The main contract of natural rubber rose 1.91%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.48%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted up to around 15,400 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [35]. - Market Analysis: The domestic production area is accelerating the suspension of production, and the overseas raw - material price is high. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in November increased year - on - year [35]. PVC - Market Performance: The main contract of PVC rose 0.34%, and the spot price remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [37]. - Market Analysis: The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly due to temporary production cuts, and the demand from downstream enterprises has declined. The cost of raw materials is stable, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry has increased. The social inventory has decreased slightly [37]. Urea - Market Performance: The main contract of urea rose 0.34%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [38]. - Market Analysis: The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase slightly. The coal price is stable, and the industry profit has rebounded slightly. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is in line with expectations [38]. PX - Market Performance: The main contract of PX2603 rose 0.46% during the day and 1.72% at night. The PXN spread was adjusted to $350 per ton [40]. - Market Analysis: The PX operating rate remained at 88.1%, and the spot liquidity was tight, and inventory was low. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce production by about 10% in January 2026. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and the short - process profit has continued to improve. PX is expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner in the short term [40]. PTA - Market Performance: The main contract of PTA2605 rose 0.98% during the day and 1.64% at night [41]. - Market Analysis: The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand from the polyester industry has declined. The export of PTA in November increased significantly month - on - month. The processing fee has rebounded, and the inventory remains low. The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good, and it is advisable to participate at low levels following the cost end [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The main contract of ethylene glycol rose 2.25% due to the planned maintenance of a Taiwanese device [42]. - Market Analysis: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased slightly. Two Taiwanese devices plan to shut down for maintenance, which will slightly relieve the supply pressure. However, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the expected arrival at the port has increased. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42][43][44]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The main contract of short - fiber 2602 rose 0.96% [45]. - Market Analysis: The production of short - fiber has decreased but remains at a relatively high level. The raw - material procurement of downstream factories has increased, and the cost - driving force has strengthened. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [45]. Bottle - Grade PET - Market Performance: The main contract of bottle - grade PET 2603 rose 1.44%, and the processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan/ton [46]. - Market Analysis: The production of bottle - grade PET has decreased slightly, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and it is expected to follow the cost end [46]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton [47]. - Market Analysis: The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory has gradually decreased. There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand [47]. Copper - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 97,680 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.51% [48]. - Market Analysis: The macro - economic data in the US is mixed. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the supply shortage risk remains unresolved. The demand has short - term pressure, and the actual available inventory of electrolytic copper is low. The upward movement of copper prices is mainly due to short - term speculative buying, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [48]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.61%; the main contract of alumina closed at 2,635 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38% [50]. - Market Analysis: The alumina price has fallen below the average cash cost, and the supply surplus pressure remains unchanged. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is average. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. Zinc - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 23,105 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.43% [52]. - Market Analysis: The processing fee of zinc concentrate is under pressure, and the production of refined zinc has continued to decline. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. Lead - Market Performance: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,265 yuan/ton
西南期货早间评论-20251226
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-26 02:14