铝：震荡偏强，氧化铝：持续磨底，铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - Japan's government plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, with a 6.3% increase compared to the current fiscal year. The budget growth is mainly driven by social security and defense spending. The government plans to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, and the debt dependence is expected to drop to 24.2% [2]. - Due to rising inflation expectations, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will take a more aggressive interest - rate hike path. The auction demand for 2 - year Japanese government bonds is weak, and the 10 - year break - even inflation rate has reached a record high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 229,349 lots, a decrease of 65,183 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,957 US dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,646 yuan, up 92 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 279,750 lots, an increase of 108,150 lots [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,345 yuan, down 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 6,506 lots, a decrease of 908 lots [1]. Spot Market - Electrolytic Aluminum: The pre - baked anode market price is 6,187 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - Alumina: The average domestic alumina price is 2,715 yuan, and the alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 334 US dollars per ton [1]. - Aluminum Alloy: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 12 yuan, up 34 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,500 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [2].