碳酸锂数据日报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side is difficult to expand significantly in the short term due to the later - than - expected resumption time of Shixiawo lithium mine and the crackdown on illegal mining by the State Council's Work Safety Committee Office The demand side is optimistic about the downstream production schedule in January, with a possible logic of "no off - season in the off - season". The combined effect of supply and demand drives up prices, but there are risks in chasing high prices due to rapid price increases and frequent risk - control measures [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 104,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,400 yuan/ton SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 102,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% Lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% Lithium carbonate 2603 closed at 121,940 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48% Lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 123,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% Lithium carbonate 2605 closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.44% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 2,140 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton Lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,265 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 11,725 yuan/ton Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 13,225 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power - type) average price is 42,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 825 yuan/ton Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) average price is 166,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,200 yuan/ton Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 149,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,300 yuan/ton Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,650 yuan/ton The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 18,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 4,600 yuan/ton The price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan/ton The price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 400 yuan/ton, with a change of - 440 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 109,773 tons, with a decrease of 652 tons The weekly inventory of smelters is 17,851 tons, with a decrease of 239 tons The weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 39,892 tons, with a decrease of 1,593 tons The weekly inventory of others is 52,030 tons, with an increase of 1,180 tons The daily registered warehouse receipts are 17,101 tons, with no change [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 111,460 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 8,002 yuan/ton The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 109,946 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 9,014 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' Yichun Shixiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival Tianqi Lithium Industry will adjust the spot transaction settlement price of all products from January 1, 2026, no longer referring to SMM prices, but choosing one of two pricing methods: Shanghai Steel Union's high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) prices, or the main contract price of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3]