黑色金属数据日报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Steel prices have weak driving force for continuous increase. The current low - volatility structure remains unbroken. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and in the absence of new drivers, operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon face a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with prices oscillating. Their fundamentals are under pressure due to high supply and weak demand, but policy benefits and cost support may lead to a risk of price decline after a rise [3]. - Coking coal and coke futures are oscillating after basis repair. There is currently no sign of an upward trend in coking coal, but it is difficult to break below the high - cost margin of 1000. After short - term valuation repair, it waits for the spot rhythm. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot [5]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to rising port inventories. However, as iron - making molten iron is expected to stabilize and rebound at the end of the month and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - The supply and demand of steel are both weak, but the inventory can still be depleted, mainly contributed by rebar. The iron - making molten iron output may not have reached the bottom, but the subsequent resumption of production power is also strong. There is also incremental demand for winter storage replenishment in the future. Short - term long positions can be appropriately closed near price integer levels, and operate with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - For trading strategies, short - term long positions should pay attention to closing, and hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage can be rolled, or option strategies can be used to assist spot sales [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The demand for silicon iron and manganese silicon has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply is still high, with a large pressure of over - supply in the medium term. The cost support for manganese silicon has strengthened. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, and industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices [3][7]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market has a fourth - round price cut expectation, and the trading atmosphere is general. The futures market is oscillating after basis repair. There is potential for inventory replenishment in the future. Industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [5][7]. Iron Ore - The iron - making molten iron output has stabilized in the short term, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, putting pressure on prices. However, as the iron - making molten iron is expected to rebound and steel mills need to replenish inventories, the decline in iron ore prices may slow down [6].