蛋白数据日报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the domestic customs meeting rumors, the soybean meal futures market showed strength today. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic relevant policy dynamics. With the expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, the South American premium is expected to face selling pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot and Basis Data - On December 25th, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot contracts in different regions (Dalian, Tianjin, etc.) decreased by 32 compared to the previous period. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 108. The M1 - 5 spread was 315 with an increase of 5 [4] Spread and Price Difference Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 84 with an increase of 13. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 547 with a decrease of 6 [5] Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1.776 billion tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. The rumor of a 25 - day customs clearance delay has increased concerns about the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year in China. Domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned with a high premium [7] Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory level in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month period. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were normal, and the提货 performance was good [8] Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still large. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises increased this week [8]