航运衍生品数据日报-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows complex trends. The shipping rates of various routes have different degrees of increase or decrease, and the market is currently in a state of shock. The main contract has fully factored in the optimistic expectations for the future SCFIS index. If the actual index does not meet the expectations, the market may face a significant correction. The market is currently gambling on the time point of the pre - holiday spot shipping rate peak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Rate Index - Spot Shipping Rate Index: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1506, with a 7.79% increase from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, with a 0.29% increase. The shipping rates of various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also increased to varying degrees, with increases ranging from 4.11% to 19.00% [3] - Contract Shipping Rate: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the increase or decrease is relatively small, with the largest increase being 1.06% and the largest decrease being - 0.04% [3] - Position and Month - Spread: The positions of different contracts have different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the position of EC2610 has increased by 277, while the position of EC2606 has decreased by 19. The month - spreads of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 also have small changes [3] Market News - Maersk: Maersk has taken a "significant step" towards returning to the Red Sea. A Singapore - flagged ship passed through the Mandeb Strait controlled by the Houthi rebels, but Maersk emphasized that this does not mean a large - scale return to the Red Sea route [3] - European Ports: European major ports are preparing for the situation where ships bypassing the Cape of Good Hope and ships passing through the Suez Canal arrive at the ports simultaneously, which will have a chain reaction on the entire supply chain [3] - Hapag - Lloyd: Hapag - Lloyd has abandoned the plan to resume using the Suez Canal on the India - US East Coast route due to customer opposition. As of November this year, it accounted for about 23% of the market on this route, with an annual cargo volume of about 303,500 TEU [3] Market Analysis - Market Trend: The market trend is in a state of shock. The spot prices of shipping companies such as Maersk, ONE, and CMA have different price adjustment strategies. Maersk's quotes for the first week of January are 2500, and 2600 - 2700 for the second week, the same as in early December, and it previously planned to raise the price to 3500 [4] - Market Logic: The main contract has fully factored in the optimistic expectations for the future SCFIS index. If the actual index does not meet the expectations, the market may face a significant correction. The time value consumption risk is prominent, and the market is currently gambling on the time point of the pre - holiday spot shipping rate peak [5] - Investment Strategy: The recommended investment strategy is to wait and see [6]