黑色建材日报：产销小幅回落，价格保持震荡-20251226

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - Glass market sentiment is weak, with production and sales slightly declining and prices remaining volatile; supply contraction is insufficient, demand lacks improvement, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash market sentiment is also weak, with prices in a narrow - range oscillation; production is decreasing but still high, demand is stable, and inventory is being reduced, but price rebound is restricted [1] - For silicomanganese, there is a mix of long and short sentiments, with prices oscillating; production and operating rates are low, but inventory is at a high level, and cost support is weakening [3] - For ferrosilicon, prices are in a narrow - range oscillation; production has significantly decreased, inventory pressure has eased, and fundamental contradictions have been mitigated [3] Group 3: Summary by Product Categories Glass - Market Analysis: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and the center of spot market transactions moved down. In late December, some production lines were cold - repaired, and supply contracted. Daily melting of float glass decreased this week, and manufacturer inventory increased month - on - month [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Production decreased slightly, supply contraction was insufficient, rigid demand lacked improvement, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. With the Spring Festival approaching, rigid demand is expected to further decline, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1] - Strategy: Oscillation [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. This week, production decreased month - on - month, and inventory was reduced month - on - month [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Production continued to decline but remained at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand was stable, and high - level inventory was being reduced, optimizing the supply - demand contradiction to some extent. However, the expected increase in float glass cold - repair plans and the launch of new soda ash production capacity restrict the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand on prices [1] - Strategy: Oscillation [2] Silicomanganese - Market Analysis: After the release of the five - major steel product consumption data, there was a mix of long and short sentiments in the futures market, with prices oscillating. Spot prices were consolidating at high levels, with the northern market price ranging from 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Enterprises are suffering continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the production reduction is insufficient, resulting in record - high inventory. Port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, and the total manganese element inventory slightly increased, weakening cost support. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] - Strategy: Oscillation [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: Futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and with the upcoming steel procurement, spot prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon price was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Last week, production significantly declined as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to respond to the decline in demand. Inventory pressure was relieved, and fundamental contradictions were mitigated. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - side changes, and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillation [4]