盘面震荡反弹，关注炼厂端需求增量

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil futures prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an upward trend at night, with the main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil rising 1.82% to 2,518 yuan/ton and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil rising 0.83% to 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently. The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has increased the sentiment premium, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.82% at 2,518 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.83% at 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]