碳酸锂：高位运行，规避追涨风险，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of building materials is moving downward with a weak trend, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [2][3][4] - The price of lithium carbonate is running at a high level. It is necessary to avoid the risk of chasing up and focus on the marginal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the implementation of macro policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory reduction, and capital and sentiment [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect the total production of construction steel by 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui are expected to affect the daily output by about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [4] - Building materials continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to move down, and winter storage was sluggish this year, providing little support for prices [4] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate opened low and closed high at 123,520 yuan/ton, with trading volume shrinking to 9.25 million lots and positions decreasing to 6.07 million lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, the net short position of the main force continued, and registered warrants increased [3] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 104,900 yuan/ton, with the basis of the main contract at - 18,620 yuan/ton. The futures' expectation of future prices was significantly higher than the spot, and capital sentiment drove the futures price to deviate from the fundamentals [3] - In terms of market transactions, most upstream lithium salt plants focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material plants were waiting and watching at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; and traders' transactions were light [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the raw material price rose last week, strengthening the cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month - on - month, with the supply steadily increasing but the growth rate slowing down [4] - In terms of demand, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained. Last week, the output of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline; the output of power cells decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by 30.34% year - on - year; new energy vehicle sales showed significant short - term fluctuations, with the penetration rate remaining stable month - on - month and increasing significantly year - on - year [4] - In terms of inventory, this week, the total weekly inventory of SMM samples decreased by 0.59% month - on - month and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, continuing to decline but with a slower slope. The inventory in other links increased by 2.32% month - on - month and 41.61% year - on - year. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month - on - month and 27.30% year - on - year, and the inventory days in other links increased by 2.48% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. Inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four places showed a phased increase, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall inventory in the industry remained tight [4] - Policy - wise, regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on GZFE and the promotion of the elimination of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits. Coupled with energy storage being listed as a key area in the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the continuation of the subsidy policy for replacing old new energy vehicles, they support the long - term supply - demand pattern. Market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and attention should be paid to the risk of insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought correction. Although market sentiment is relatively strong, its vulnerability still exists [5]