研究所日报-20251226

Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the "7" mark for the first time in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.996 on December 25[2] - The onshore RMB also approached the "7" mark, peaking at 7.0053, marking a 15-month high[2] - The central economic work conference emphasized expanding domestic demand and increasing national income, which are closely tied to exchange rates[2] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.47% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.33%[3] - Total trading volume in the two markets reached 19,245.23 billion CNY, an increase of 442.55 billion CNY from the previous trading day[3] - The 10-year government bond yield was reported at 1.8413%, with a change of +0.38 basis points[3] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included defense and military, light industry manufacturing, and machinery equipment, with gains of 2.91%, 1.59%, and 1.51% respectively[3] - The sectors that lagged included comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and commercial retail, with declines of 1.12%, 0.77%, and 0.47% respectively[3] International Market Context - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.9079, down by 0.05%, while the USD to offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.001, reflecting an appreciation of 66 basis points for the RMB[4]