离岸人民币升破7.0大关，警惕贵金属价格波动风险

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Amid policy expectation swings, focus on high - certainty sectors like non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and make risk plans for potential market adjustments [1][4] - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Chinese policies emphasize active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with multiple ministries responding. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months. In November, China's foreign trade rebounded, but the economy was still under pressure. On December 25, A - share indices rose, the offshore RMB broke through 7.0 against the US dollar [1] - The Fed restarted a "restrictive" stance, buying $40 billion of short - term bonds in 30 days and cutting rates by 25 basis points. The US economic data showed a mixed picture. There are risks of macro - and fundamental resonance if market sentiment turns cold [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The impact of this rate hike was limited due to low foreign ownership of Japanese bonds and stable dollar - yen net long positions [3] Commodity Analysis - In the inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints. Energy has supply - related issues, and geopolitical factors affect the market. The "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and agricultural product procurement plans are also worth attention. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but beware of short - term silver risks [4] Strategy - Suggest buying stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [5] To - do News - The Shanghai Composite Index had a 7 - day winning streak. The RMB against the US dollar reached new highs. The volume of pledged repurchase hit a new high. The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months [7] - Israel and Hamas had a new dispute, and Zelensky stated that Ukraine would not give up joining NATO [8]