宏观环境催化频发，贵金属延续强势表现

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The macro environment has frequent catalysts, and precious metals continue to show strong performance. With the increase in market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may rise, and the price of gold is expected to be in a volatile and slightly strong pattern. Silver's price is also expected to remain strong due to spot shortages, but the risk of historical high prices should be watched out for [1][8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark during intraday trading for the first time in 15 months, reaching a maximum of 6.9985. The onshore RMB against the US dollar approached the "7" mark, reaching a maximum of 7.0053. Israel's high - level officials signaled a possible military conflict with Iran again. The Bank of Japan's governor said that it is steadily approaching the 2% inflation target and may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is in line with expectations [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,013.94 yuan/gram, closed at 1,008.76 yuan/gram, a change of - 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it closed at 1,019.60 yuan/gram, up 1.07% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 17,630.00 yuan/kg, closed at 17,397.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,313,979 lots, and the open interest was 304,054 lots. In the night session, it closed at 18,131 yuan/kg, up 4.22% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 25, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.63%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On December 25, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long position decreased by 4,521 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position decreased by 92 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 307,456 lots, a change of - 37.41% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, the long position decreased by 15,678 lots, and the short position decreased by 14,342 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 3,355,499 lots, a change of 1.64% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,068.27 tons, an increase of 3.71 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 25, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 0.74 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 615.93 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 57.98, a change of 0.63% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 28,920 kg, a change of - 48.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 502,128 kg, a change of - 50.32% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 31,890 kg [7].