市场消息清淡，关注马士基1月下半月第一周价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations. The 02 contract's delivery is becoming clearer and will follow real - world quotes more closely. The focus now is on whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [8][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Multiple shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for the first and second weeks of January are 1585/2550 and 1570/2520 respectively; HPL's quotes for the second half of December and the first half of January are 1535/2535 and 1835/3035 respectively. Other companies like MSC, ONE, HMM, YML, CMA, EMC, and OOCL also have their respective quotes [1][2][3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will never fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will set up a security zone in the Gaza Strip to protect Israeli communities, even after the cease - fire and Hamas disarmament [3]. - Policy Changes: The Shanghai International Energy Trading Center plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Trading Center Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract". It will adjust the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. II. Supply and Demand - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly container shipping capacity in December, January, and February is 31.45, 30.46, and 28.47 million TEU respectively. There are empty sailings and TBNs in January and February, mainly from the OA and PA alliances [5]. - Demand: Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [6]. III. Contract Analysis - 12 - Month Contract: The delivery and settlement price of the 12 - month contract is gradually becoming clear, estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points. The large - scale cargo collection and container dumping from December 8 - 15 may drag down the index on December 22 and 29 [6][7]. - EC2602 Contract: The delivery of the 02 contract is becoming clearer, and it will follow real - world quotes more closely. The current focus is on whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases. The Maersk quote of 2500 US dollars/FEU is equivalent to about 1750 - 1800 points on the SCFIS [8]. - Far - Month Contracts: Due to the high probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026, the far - month contracts are under pressure, and their valuations may be revised downward. The normal SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate from 2017 - 2019 was between 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to about 600 - 1400 points on the SCFIS [9]. IV. Market Data - Futures Market: As of December 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,466.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,322.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [10]. - Spot Market: On December 19, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route price was 1533 US dollars/TEU, the Shanghai - US West route price was 1992 US dollars/FEU, and the Shanghai - US East route price was 2846 US dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS Shanghai - Europe was 1589.20 points, and the Shanghai - US West was 962.10 points [10]. - Container Ship Delivery: In 2025, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 21, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12000 - 16999 TEU and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU have been delivered [10]. V. Strategy - Single - Side Trading: The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [11].