新疆种植面积预期调减，郑棉期价强势上涨

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The 2025/26 global cotton production and demand are both decreasing, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production is slightly increasing, and the northern hemisphere's new cotton supply pressure is high. The global textile consumption is still weak. The domestic cotton production continues to increase, with sufficient short - term supply. The demand is improving with the approaching festivals. Considering the expected reduction in cotton planting and production in Xinjiang in 2026, the cotton price is expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in a definite surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. The domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but the port inventory is declining. With the expansion of downstream paper production capacity, the pulp price may gradually stabilize [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,255 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,086 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,279 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The Pakistani cotton market trading slowed, and the local cotton price was stable. The KCA's 2025/26 annual spot price was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data in this month is small. The US cotton production is increasing slightly, and the short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic cotton production continues to increase in 2025/26. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the hedging resistance on the disk is weakening. The new orders in the off - season are few, but the market sentiment is improving [2]. Strategy Neutral to bullish. The domestic cotton consumption is increasing, the new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price is optimistic after the seasonal pressure [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,269 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2025/26 Thai sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased compared with the same period last year [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. - Zheng sugar: The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. Strategy Neutral. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low, and there is a possibility of rebound [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,604 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was weak [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar and Finnlin Group. - Demand: The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient. The port inventory is high but declining. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7]. Strategy Neutral. The overseas supply is disturbed, and the domestic demand may have a mild recovery before the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the increase depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [8].