中辉黑色观点-20251226

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bullish [1] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferromanganese (MnSi): Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe): Cautiously bearish [1] Core Views of the Report - Steel products are expected to maintain a range-bound operation in the medium term due to weak supply and demand and limited macro - policy drivers [1][3][5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term as steel mills replenish stocks, and port inventories increase while external ore arrivals decline [1][8] - Coke prices are likely to follow coking coal prices in a range - bound operation, with the fourth round of price cuts expected after three rounds of cuts have been implemented [1][11] - Coking coal prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term due to reduced mine production and cautious downstream procurement [1][15] - Ferromanganese and silicon ferroalloy prices are expected to operate in a range, with their fundamentals showing marginal improvement and prices at relatively low levels [1][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and the absolute level is still the lowest in the same period. Inventory continued to decline normally and has reached a relatively low level. Iron - making water production was basically flat, similar to the same period last year. With limited macro - policy drivers, the state of weak supply and demand and range - bound operation will continue [1][4][5] - Hot - rolled Coil: Production and apparent demand increased slightly, inventory continued to decline, but the absolute level is still high and the de - stocking speed is slow. The spot is relatively weak, and the basis fluctuates around par. High inventory and low basis suppress the upward space of the market, and it may continue to operate in a range in the short term [1][4][5] Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Iron - making water production decreased month - on - month, with a narrowing decline. Steel mills replenished stocks, and port inventories increased. External ore arrivals and shipments both decreased, providing short - term support for ore prices [1][8] - Price Indicators: Port ore prices remained firm, and most mines continued to raise their far - month quotes. Some price data such as futures prices, basis, and spreads are provided in the report [6] Coke - Price Adjustments: Three rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the expectation of a fourth round is increasing [1][10][11] - Supply and Demand: Some regions may implement environmental protection warnings again. Current coke - making enterprise production enthusiasm is okay, and regional supply decreased slightly. Iron - making water production decline slowed down, and steel mills maintained small - scale stock replenishment [1][10][11] Coking Coal - Supply: Near the end of the year, more coal mines are under maintenance, and mine production continued to decline month - on - month. It is expected that the short - term supply will remain at a low level [1][14][15] - Import and Demand: Regulatory area inventories continued to increase, recent transactions improved slightly, but downstream procurement is cautious. Short - term prices are expected to continue range - bound operation [1][14][15] Ferromanganese (MnSi) - Supply and Demand: Port ore prices remained firm, and most mines continued to raise their far - month quotes. This week, regional supply increased month - on - month, demand improved marginally, and inventory continued to increase. December steel tenders are basically over, and steel mill prices generally decreased slightly [1][17][18] - Price Trend: In the short term, the cost side provides strong support, the price is at a relatively low level, and it will maintain range - bound operation [1][17][18] Silicon Ferroalloy (SiFe) - Supply and Demand: There were more production cuts and stoppages in the main production areas, demand weakened marginally, and inventory continued to decline. December steel tenders are basically over, and steel mill prices were mainly slightly lower or flat [1][17][18] - Price Trend: Its own fundamentals improved marginally, the price is at a relatively low level, and it will maintain range - bound operation [1][17][18]