聚烯烃日报：聚烯烃下游整体开工继续下滑-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall downstream operating rate of polyolefins continues to decline. For PE, the supply is high, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating. For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables, and the inventory level is still high. The cost side of both has some support due to the recent rebound in international oil prices. The current cost - supply - demand contradiction restricts the price, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient [3][4] 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: L main contract closed at 6390 yuan/ton (-18), PP main contract at 6266 yuan/ton (-12). LL North China spot was 6250 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 6400 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6140 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -140 yuan/ton (+68), LL East China basis 10 yuan/ton (+48), PP East China basis -126 yuan/ton (+12) [1] - Upstream Supply: PE operating rate was 82.6% (-1.2%), PP operating rate 76.9% (-2.5%) [1] - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit was -92.6 yuan/ton (+16.6), PP oil - based production profit -562.6 yuan/ton (+16.6), PDH - made PP production profit -819.7 yuan/ton (-10.6) [1] - Import and Export: LL import profit was 40.7 yuan/ton (+198.1), PP import profit -316.1 yuan/ton (-14.6), PP export profit -16.1 US dollars/ton (-13.5) [1] - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 43.9% (-1.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 48.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.7% (-0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The supply remains high, with some plants planning to restart and new production capacity to be released. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream operating rate is declining. The inventory is accumulating, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The cost support has increased due to the rise in international oil prices [3] - PP: The short - term supply - demand fundamentals have limited variables. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The inventory level is high. The cost support has increased due to the rise in international oil prices and propane prices [4] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. The short - term sentiment drives the market to rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the rebound height is expected to be limited - Inter - period: No strategy - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [5]