交易规则调整，碳酸锂价格宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current price is mainly influenced by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term price increases are significant, so investors need to be vigilant about the risk of price corrections [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 118,740 yuan/ton and closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, and the open interest was 607,187 lots (647,366 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 16,560 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Starting from December 26, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading rules for 12 lithium carbonate futures contracts [1]. Carbonate Lithium Spot - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,800 - 112,000 yuan/ton, a change of 3,400 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 97,500 - 107,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 3,400 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The actual market transactions show that most upstream lithium salt factories focus on long - term contracts, with few spot transactions. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high prices, mainly purchasing based on rigid demand and increasing long - term contracts, and adjusting the procurement rhythm according to next month's production schedule. The overall spot market transactions are extremely rare. Hunan Yueneng will conduct maintenance starting from January 1, 2026, which is expected to affect the production of phosphate cathode products by 15,000 - 35,000 tons, corresponding to a lithium carbonate consumption of about 350 - 1,000 tons. The current spot inventory is 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, smelter inventory is 17,851 tons, a decrease of 239 tons; downstream inventory is 39,892 tons, a decrease of 1,593 tons; other inventory is 52,030 tons, an increase of 1,180 tons. The overall inventory is expected to continue to decline in December, but the depletion speed continues to slow down [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and sell on rallies for hedging opportunities. Options, inter - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not recommended [3][4].