原料快速上涨，聚酯负荷下降

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cost side: Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, crude oil has rebounded. Although the downward pressure on oil prices is still significant in Q1 next year, recent factors such as overseas holidays and commodity index fund rebalancing at the beginning of the year may cause disturbances to the market. The PXN of PX has increased significantly, and the load can be effectively maintained. The contango has strengthened recently, and the outlook for Q2 next year is good. The gasoline cracking spread has not improved significantly, but the US aromatics stockpiling has started [1]. - TA: The basis of the spot market has gradually strengthened. The December balance sheet shows inventory reduction, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January. In the long run, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [2]. - Demand: The polyester开工率 is 91.1% (down 0.1% month - on - month). The weaving load is accelerating its decline. It is expected that the starting rate will further decline in mid - December. The polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in the short term and is expected to decline around January [2]. - PF: The spot production profit is 90 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton month - on - month). The fundamentals have not changed much, but the processing margin is facing compression. The demand side shows average sales [3]. - PR: The spot processing fee is 476 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month). The processing range has been compressed. The load has rebounded as the inventory has decreased. The supply may increase in the future, and the short - term processing range is expected to be limited [3]. - Strategy: Be cautiously bullish on PX/PTA/PF/PR, but be vigilant against the risk of price pull - back due to capital reduction. For PX/PTA/PF/PR, pay attention to the change in polyester load. For PTA, conduct a 5 - 9 contango arbitrage [4][5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][24] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - Include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom starting rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing starting rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing starting rate [50][52][61] PF Detailed Data - Include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn starting rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn starting rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [88][95][96]