新能源及有色金属日报：消费维持强势表现-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are expected to face pressure due to supply-side pressure and the potential disappointment of consumption peak season expectations, but may show a relatively weak trend even when other non-ferrous metals are strong, with caution needed regarding overseas inventory impacts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 180 yuan/ton to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 80 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell by 190 yuan/ton to 23,030 yuan/ton, with a premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 160 yuan/ton to 23,010 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On December 25, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,085 yuan/ton, closed at 23,065 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,213 lots, and the open interest was 93,322 lots. The intraday high was 23,095 yuan/ton, and the low was 22,910 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,700 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market. However, social inventory is increasing and is about to exceed the average level of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build-up is expected to continue, and the current inventory build-up is accelerating. If the consumption peak season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]