现货成交清淡，铅价再陷震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - Lead prices are oscillating at a low level. The continuous decline in inventory and production cuts in secondary lead provide support, but the spot market is weak at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Hedging operations can be carried out by buying or selling within this range [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - On December 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.81/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells increased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,315 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 55,100 lots, a decrease of 12,922 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 56,328 lots, a decrease of 210 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,205 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,265 yuan/ton, basically flat compared to the afternoon close. The SMM 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures oscillated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. With the continuous decline of lead prices, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stockpiling at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On December 25, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 18,000 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to trade within the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton by buying or selling for hedging. The option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4][5]