石油沥青日报：供需两弱格局延续，局部现货反弹-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with local spot prices rebounding. The market is a mix of long and short factors, showing a north - south divide. The cost side support is strengthening marginally, and the northern winter storage demand is consolidating the bottom signal. However, the actual fundamentals are still weak, especially in the south where there is a large supply of low - priced resources and significant surplus pressure. The local surplus contradiction needs time to resolve, and the risk of raw material supply tightening is a potential upward driver [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.17% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 181,112 lots, down 8,923 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,574 lots, down 25,367 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton; South China: 2,850 - 2,950 yuan/ton; East China: 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton. Asphalt spot prices in North China and South China increased yesterday, while those in other regions remained generally stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - hand side long position on dips. Cross - variety: None. Cross - period: None. Spot - futures: None. Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various asphalt - related data such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest, weekly production, consumption in different sectors (road, waterproof, coking, ship fuel), and refinery and social inventories [3]