光大期货能化商品日报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus in 2026, with prices likely to continue oscillating during the holiday period [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a slight strengthening in the low - sulfur segment and some support in the high - sulfur segment. Short - term prices of FU and LU are likely to fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may remain stable and rise [1][3]. - The asphalt price is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand. The downward price space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - In the polyester market, the upstream PX and TA have positive expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited. The ethylene glycol price may face pressure due to high domestic production and potential over - supply [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as the end of the domestic production season, increased overseas supply, and weak downstream demand [5]. - The methanol price is likely to maintain bottom - level oscillations due to factors such as the decline in Iranian supply and the weakening of MTO demand [7]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamental drivers and large inventory transfer pressure, and is expected to show an oscillating performance [7]. - The PVC price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations due to high - level supply oscillations and weak domestic demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures were closed for the Christmas holiday. SC2602 closed at 444.7 yuan/barrel, up 1.7 yuan/barrel or 0.38%. Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. The global oil market is balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective. ING believes there will be an oil surplus in 2026, and the oil price is expected to oscillate during the holiday [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose 0.61% to 2489 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.33% to 3016 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) week - on - week. The low - sulfur market strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market had some support. The arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market may decline in December, and the supply in Asia may be sufficient from January to February. The high - sulfur market has good downstream demand support. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may rise [1][3]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 rose 0.17% to 2995 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The weekly shipment increased by 15.4%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month but increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The cost is supported due to the tense US - Venezuela relationship, but the terminal demand is weak. The price downward space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices [3]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 5152 yuan/ton, up 1.14%; EG2605 closed at 3818 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PX futures contract 603 closed at 7358 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China reduced its load, and a 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted. The ethylene glycol start - up load in mainland China is 72.15% (up 0.18% week - on - week), and the polyester load is around 89.7%. The demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [3][5]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 80 yuan/ton to 15730 yuan/ton, and the NR contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 12695 yuan/ton, while the butadiene rubber BR contract fell 110 yuan/ton to 11285 yuan/ton. Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased by 4.6% year - on - year in the first 11 months, and exports to China increased by 24%. The rubber price followed the rise of the macro - commodity sentiment. The domestic production season ended, overseas supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the Taicang spot price was 2145 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the production is oscillating at a high level. Iranian supply remains low. The Ningbo Fude device is under maintenance, and the MTO device start - up rate in East China has decreased. The inventory may fluctuate, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [7]. - Polyolefins: On Thursday, the East China拉丝 price was 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton. The production profit of various types of polyolefins is negative. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Thursday, the East China PVC market held firm, the North China market declined slightly, and the South China market had individual price increases. Some plants plan to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The domestic real - estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. The price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. Russia will continue to work within the OPEC+ framework, and the global oil market is balanced [11]. - US Coast Guard is unable to seize an oil tanker related to Venezuela due to a shortage of professional staff and will wait for more personnel to arrive [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, and others [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][22][23][24][26][28]. - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, and others [32][35][36][38][40][42]. - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, and other contracts [44][45][46][47][50][51][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - 4.4 Inter - variety Spread: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63][64][65]. - 4.5 Production Profit: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene, PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [73][74][75][76].