光大期货金融期货日报-20251226

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term, while important meetings have a long - term positive impact on the stock index. The GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 is expected to remain unchanged, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productive forces". Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, with a possible slight increase in scale compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan have led to a divergence in the 2026 rate - cut expectations, causing fluctuations in US technology stocks. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Bank of Japan's possible interest - rate hike on carry - trade funds [1]. - The short - term trend of treasury bonds is relatively strong. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. The bond - market's volatile pattern is difficult to change due to the stable economy and rising prices [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for 7 consecutive days, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rebounding after hitting a low. Over 3,700 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume was 1.94 trillion yuan. The stock - index futures market has been fluctuating around the central lower - limit since October, with limited differentiation between large - and small - cap indexes and frequent sector rotations. The policies from important meetings are expected to have a greater impact on the market. The GDP growth target of 5% in 2026 is expected to remain unchanged, and policies will focus on "stabilizing domestic demand" and "promoting the rapid development of new - quality productive forces". Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to work together, with a possible slight increase in scale compared to this year. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut and restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan have led to a divergence in the 2026 rate - cut expectations, causing fluctuations in US technology stocks. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Bank of Japan's possible interest - rate hike on carry - trade funds. The short - term trend of the stock index is volatile [1]. - Treasury Bonds: On Thursday, treasury - bond futures closed with declines. The central bank carried out reverse repurchases and MLF operations, achieving a net investment of 188.8 billion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, but rate - cut operations will be cautious. The bond - market's volatile pattern is difficult to change due to the stable economy and rising prices [2]. Daily Price Changes - Stock - Index Futures: On December 25, 2025, IH rose by 0.23% to 3,034.0, IF rose by 0.34% to 4,610.6, IC rose by 1.11% to 7,320.6, and IM rose by 1.25% to 7,419.0 compared to the previous day [3]. - Stock Indexes: On December 25, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose by 0.25% to 3,032.8, the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.18% to 4,642.5, the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.80% to 7,410.7, and the CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.97% to 7,579.4 compared to the previous day [3]. - Treasury - Bond Futures: On December 25, 2025, TS fell by 0.02% to 102.51, TF fell by 0.03% to 105.99, T fell by 0.03% to 108.20, and TL fell by 0.29% to 112.51 compared to the previous day [3]. Market News - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged a solemn representation [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.47% for 7 consecutive days. The commercial - spaceflight and robot concepts soared. The papermaking sector rose, while the Hainan sector declined [4]. Chart Analysis - Stock - Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM, as well as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index [6][7][8]. - Treasury - Bond Futures: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates of treasury - bond futures [13][14][19]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency - pair exchange rates [23][25][27].