南华期货有色金属锡2026年度展望：物以锡为贵

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of tin is expected to fluctuate widely throughout 2026, with the overall center of gravity moving upward. It may face pressure in the first half of the year due to supply recovery and potential AI bubbles, and then rise in the second half as macro - easing policies are implemented and the market reaches a tight balance. The predicted core fluctuation range for the SHFE Shanghai tin main contract in 2026 is 275,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the range for LME tin is 38,500 - 56,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - On the supply side, there are significant uncertainties in the three major supply areas of Myanmar, Indonesia, and Congo (Kinshasa). Supply may be stronger in the first half of 2026 compared to this year, but supply disruptions will persist in the second half due to factors such as the rainy season in Myanmar, the intensification of the war in Congo (Kinshasa), and quota restrictions in Indonesia [2]. - On the demand side, the consumer electronics industry is entering a recovery cycle. Although the AI sector has a relatively small weight, it has strong driving force. Other traditional tin - consuming sectors will maintain steady growth. The overall demand growth rate of tin is expected to remain above 3% in 2026 [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - First stage (January - May 2025): Supply bottlenecks drove the market, and capital forced short - covering to push prices to a peak. The core contradiction was a sharp contraction in supply. Delays in Indonesia's RKAB export quota approval and the repeated failure of the复产 in Myanmar's Wa State mine led to a supply gap. Coupled with the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, capital launched a short - covering campaign, pushing the Shanghai tin main contract to a high [4]. - Second stage (May - September 2025): Negative feedback emerged, and there was a deep correction as the macro - environment cooled. High tin prices suppressed downstream purchasing, leading to low spot trading and inventory stagnation. The approval of Indonesia's RKAB and the recovery of exports, along with fluctuating macro - sentiment, caused long - position capital to leave the market, and tin prices fell [4]. - Third stage (October - December 2025): Raw material shortages resurfaced, and the implementation of macro - policies pushed prices to a new high. Despite the nominal复产 in Myanmar's Wa State, actual tin concentrate inflows were lower than expected. The Fed's interest - rate cut, combined with low inventory and weak supply in the industry and increased demand from semiconductors and AI, drove tin prices up to a historical high [7]. Chapter 3: Supply Side - Increasing Uncertainty - Tin ore: Limited growth: In 2025, global tin concentrate supply showed a pattern of "stock competition and limited growth." In 2026, the supply elasticity of global tin ore remains weak, and the core contradiction is shifting from policy disruptions to resource depletion. The growth rate of global tin ore production is expected to be in the range of 1.5% - 2% under a pessimistic scenario, and may reach 8% if the复产 exceeds expectations [8]. - Myanmar: Multiple disturbances: Myanmar's tin supply has been a major source of "expected differences." Since the mining rectification in 2024, the actual复产 has been slow and non - continuous due to policy, equipment, and cost factors. In 2026, resource depletion will limit supply, and the rainy season and logistics problems may cause supply shortages and price increases [12][13]. - Indonesia: From elastic adjustment to institutional constraints: In 2025, Indonesia's tin exports were restricted by anti - corruption investigations and stricter RKAB approvals. In 2026, although the approval process may normalize, supply elasticity will decline significantly. Exports are expected to recover but will be subject to RKAB approvals [18]. - Congo (Kinshasa): Increment and geopolitical concerns: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is the only certain incremental source of global supply in 2026. However, the project faces risks of armed conflict and unstable logistics, so a higher risk premium should be considered [22]. - Cost support analysis: In 2026, the cost of global tin mining is expected to rise. The 90 - percentile cash cost line (C1) is expected to reach 26,000 - 27,000 US dollars/ton, and the 90 - percentile fully cost (AISC) is expected to exceed 29,000 US dollars/ton, providing strong support for tin prices [24][25]. Chapter 4: Demand Side - Cycle Resonance and AI Reconstruction - Consumer electronics: From "passive inventory reduction" to "active inventory replenishment": The consumer electronics industry has ended the difficult inventory reduction phase. In 2026, it will enter the "active inventory replenishment" stage driven by the replacement cycle of PC equipment and the penetration of "edge - side AI" [27][30]. - AI servers: Strong driving force, low weight - In 2026, the AI server market is divided into "standard modular servers" and "rack - scale systems." The rack - scale system represented by NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 has a revolutionary impact on tin consumption [33][34]. - The estimated tin consumption of a single NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 cabinet is 5.15 kg, mainly from computing trays, cable assemblies, power systems, and backplane systems [36][38]. - The total tin consumption increment of the AI industry chain in 2026 is estimated to be about 1,600 tons, accounting for less than 0.5% of the global annual consumption. Although the physical impact is limited, it has a significant influence on market pricing [43][44]. - Marginal changes: Photovoltaic's reduction concerns and the resilience of traditional sectors - In 2026, the demand growth of the photovoltaic sector will level off as the increase in installed capacity is offset by the decline in tin consumption per GW. The sector will become a support for maintaining high - level consumption rather than a major driver of price increases [45][46]. - In traditional sectors, tin chemicals may face a decline, while tinplate and lead - acid batteries are expected to maintain stable growth, providing basic support for tin consumption [46]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Inventory - Global supply - demand balance: Under different scenarios in 2026, the supply of global tin ore and refined tin will increase, and consumption will also grow. However, there will still be a supply - demand gap, and the gap may widen [49]. - Inventory: Excess inventory cleared, elasticity restored: In 2025, tin market inventory returned to normal levels. In 2026, with the expected expansion of the supply - demand gap, the ability of inventory to regulate supply and demand will weaken, and prices will be more sensitive to marginal gaps [50].