海外经济政策跟踪：美联储或暂停降息，日央行如期加息

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly above the market expectation of 50,000, but the overall employment trend remains sluggish[8] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%, indicating a potential increase in labor market pressures[8] - November's CPI growth in the U.S. was 2.7%, significantly below the expected 3.1%, with core CPI at 2.6%, also below expectations[14] Market Performance - In the commodities market, COMEX copper rose by 2.3%, while IPE crude oil futures fell by 1.1% and the S&P-Goldman commodity index decreased by 0.5%[2] - Emerging market stocks underperformed compared to developed markets, with the Nikkei 225 dropping 2.6% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[2] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the emerging market stock index fell by 1.5%[2] Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts, with the new chair expected to be announced in early 2026[4] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, indicating a potential for gradual future increases[30] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rates, suggesting that the current easing cycle may be nearing its end[29] Risk Factors - Political pressures from Trump could threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the U.S. unemployment rate may face nonlinear deterioration risks[32]