有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 26 日）-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices hit a new high, with the macro - environment remaining warm due to Fed liquidity support and global economic growth repair expectations in 2026. Fundamentals show low inventory and demand resilience, but high prices may suppress physical buying, and domestic inventories may increase. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Alumina continued to decline, converging with futures, and the spot premium continued to narrow. Aluminum prices may face inventory build - up pressure and their upward momentum will be weak, continuing to oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel prices were boosted by news, but the actual implementation is unknown. Stainless steel inventory decreased, and new energy costs and demand weakened. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, LME was closed, and the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 2.51% to 97,680 yuan/ton. Japan plans a large - scale budget in 2026, and the RMB exchange rate hit a new high. Domestic refined copper inventory increased by 2.52 million tons. High prices made downstream procurement cautious. A long - term bullish view is maintained, but buying on dips is recommended [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina oscillated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The increase in ore shipments and imports put pressure on alumina prices. Aluminum may face inventory build - up pressure, and prices will oscillate at high levels [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.13%, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.35%. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesian nickel production may decline in 2026, and the government plans to revise the benchmark price formula. Nickel - related prices were mostly stable, and stainless steel inventory decreased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Domestic and foreign inventories showed different changes, and the import loss decreased by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and the import profit increased by 130 yuan/ton [4]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. Alumina inventory decreased, and aluminum inventory increased. The import loss increased by 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,550 yuan/ton. Nickel inventory increased, and stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. The import profit decreased significantly [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. Inventory changes were mixed, and the import loss increased by 190 yuan/ton [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 1.7%. Inventory increased, and the import loss increased by 5,920 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][12][17]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [18][22][23]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in non - ferrous metal research and have won many industry awards [51][52].