Orient Securities·2025-12-26 05:12Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The long-term processing fee for copper concentrate for 2026 has been set to zero, highlighting a significant downward adjustment from 2025's benchmark of $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound, indicating a structural contradiction between copper supply and smelting demand [7] - Traditional copper demand is stabilizing while emerging sectors are showing significant growth, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting a 28.9% increase in copper demand from clean energy sources by 2024 compared to 2021, suggesting a continued upward trend in copper prices due to persistent supply-demand imbalances [7] - The pessimistic expectations regarding smelting fees have been addressed, and there is potential for marginal improvement in processing fees as major copper mines like Grasberg and Cobre Panamá are expected to resume operations, contributing to supply increases [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, particularly copper, and discusses the dynamics of supply and demand in these sectors [2][4] Investment Recommendations - For copper mining, it is recommended to focus on Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) due to its substantial resource reserves and expected production increases. Other notable mentions include Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) and Jincheng Mining (603979, Not Rated) [7] - For the copper smelting sector, Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) is highlighted as a major player with improved self-sufficiency expectations, alongside Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) [7]