光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices are expected to maintain a firm and volatile trend in the short term, with support from a significant decline in enterprise inventories and market expectations for the results of Indian tenders after January and changes in China's export policies [2] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels. The supply and demand of soda ash have both declined in the short term, and the market has entered a stage of multi - party game [2] - Glass futures prices will continue to oscillate within the bottom range. The supply and demand of glass and internal and external factors are in a stage of game, but the overall market driving force is insufficient [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Urea: On Thursday, the urea futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46%. The spot market was mostly flat. The supply level of urea has been fluctuating at a low level, and the daily output of the industry on the previous day was 193,200 tons, with a daily increase of 13,000 tons. The demand sentiment has cooled down, and the production - sales rate in the mainstream areas has dropped to the range of 5% - 50%. The subsequent supply - demand changes of urea may be differentiated. It is expected that the short - term futures price will maintain a firm and volatile trend [2] - Soda ash: On Thursday, the soda ash futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,184 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.51%. The spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, and the prices of light soda ash in some central China regions were loosening. The quotes in the trader segment continued to decline. The fundamentals show that the starting rate and output of the soda ash industry this week decreased by 1.09 percentage points and 1.32% respectively. The enterprise inventory decreased by 4.06% compared with last Thursday, and the social - link inventory decreased by more than 50,000 tons. The demand follow - up sentiment is average. The short - term supply and demand of soda ash have both declined, and the market has entered a game stage. It is recommended to treat it with a low - level wide - range volatility idea [2] - Glass: On Thursday, the glass futures price showed a firm and volatile trend. The closing price of the main 05 contract was 1,047 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.38%. The spot price was still weak. The daily melting volume of the industry has been fluctuating within a narrow range. The demand follow - up sentiment can be maintained, and the production - sales rate in the mainstream areas is mostly around 100%. The glass supply - demand and internal and external factors are in a game stage, and the market driving force is insufficient. The futures price will continue the bottom - range oscillation trend [2] Market Information - Urea: On December 25, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 10,750, an increase of 318 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 100. The daily output of the urea industry on December 25 was 193,200 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous working day and 173,000 tons from the same period last year. The starting rate was 79.88%, a rise of 2.05 percentage points from 77.83% in the same period last year. The small - particle urea spot prices in various domestic regions on December 25 were mostly flat. The urea enterprise inventory on December 24 was 1.0689 million tons, a weekly decrease of 110,800 tons and 9.39% [5][6] - Soda ash and Glass: On December 25, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 4,473, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,049; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 217, unchanged from the previous trading day. The soda ash spot prices in various regions on December 25 showed some price adjustments. The soda ash output for the week ending December 25 was 711,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 96,000 tons and 1.32%; the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 81.65%, a weekly decrease of 1.09 percentage points. The soda ash manufacturer inventory as of December 25 was 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 61,900 tons and 4.13% from Monday, and a decrease of 60,800 tons and 4.06% from last Thursday. The average price of the float glass market on December 25 was 1,076 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the daily output of the industry was 154,500 tons, a daily increase of 500 tons. The inventory of domestic float glass enterprises as of December 25 was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a weekly increase of 65,000 heavy boxes and 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as last week [8][9] Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, inter - contract spreads, spot price trends, and inter - futures spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, to visually show the price and trading trends of these products [11][13][15]