全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第220期)-20251226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation quotas are basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [4] - The quota base carry - over amount for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 for most enterprises, the actual procurement enthusiasm may be lower than expected [4] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 70 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - The average price of listed agreement transactions increased by about 4.6%, and the daily trading volume remained basically flat. The main CEA contract achieved a consecutive upward trend, with 1.186 million tons listed and 2.275 million tons in bulk transactions. The listed agreement trading volume of CCER was 100,100 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The signal strength of the strategy is 1 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short) [2] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market - Price: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 60.00 yuan/ton, 75.08 yuan/ton, 65.77 yuan/ton, 68.08 yuan/ton, and 75.50 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 0.00%, 7.10%, - 2.06%, 1.22%, and 7.14%. The new - old price differences are 15.08 yuan/ton, - 9.31 yuan/ton, 2.31 yuan/ton, and 7.42 yuan/ton. The average bulk transaction price of CEA23 is 69.63 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 is 72.70 yuan/ton [6] - Volume: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 43.46 million tons, and 294.04 million tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 33.46 million tons, and 76.52 million tons respectively. The bulk agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 2.1752 million tons, 1.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 0.00 million tons respectively. The total trading amounts are 4.6508 million yuan, 29.7394 million yuan, 215.9057 million yuan, 0.00 million yuan, and 1.1921 million yuan respectively [6][7] Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The average transaction price of CCER is 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The trading amount is 8.7971 million yuan, the trading volume is 100,100 tons, and the cumulative trading volume is 8.7924 million tons [8]