国投期货综合晨报-20251226

Oil - The external market was closed due to the Christmas holiday, while domestic oil prices fluctuated. Russian Black Sea port attacks and adverse weather have slowed repair progress, leading to a 14-month low in Kazakhstan's December CPC mixed oil exports. Despite a decline in drilling and fracturing activities in the US shale oil industry, US crude oil production remains high due to production adjustments lagging behind. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, but the overall market fundamentals remain loose, suggesting a shift in market focus from geopolitical issues to a long-term supply-demand balance that may lead to a downward adjustment in price levels [1]. Precious Metals - The external market was closed for Christmas, while domestic gold and silver continued a strong trend. The adjustment of minimum opening quantities and trading limits by the Guangqi Exchange has occurred. The prospect of Federal Reserve easing and geopolitical risks have supported the strength of precious metals, with various types reaching new highs, leading to increased market volatility and the need for position control [2]. Copper - The Shanghai copper night market opened high, briefly rising to 98,000. Domestic spot divergence signals have strengthened, with Shanghai and Guangdong discounts expanding to 330 and 185 yuan respectively. SMM social warehouse increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons. Short-term domestic supply and demand pressures may lead to greater adjustment pressure on copper prices, but tight raw material supply may transmit to domestic refined copper, benefiting exports. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions or adjust the holding position to 95,000 [3]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum market showed a strong fluctuation. The fundamental contradictions in the aluminum market are limited, with social warehouses fluctuating narrowly and apparent demand year-on-year being weak, leading to an expansion of spot discounts. The macro sentiment continues to drive precious metals and various non-ferrous metals to new highs, with Shanghai aluminum primarily following the upward trend and testing previous high resistance levels [4]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with a persistent oversupply situation and rising industry inventories. The average complete cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850-2,900 yuan, while the spot index has dropped to around 2,700 yuan, indicating profitability at cash cost calculations. A Guinea mining company has lowered its first-quarter long-term contract price by $5, suggesting potential for cost reduction in alumina. The weak trend in alumina is expected to continue before any significant production cuts, with a larger basis for spot price declines [5]. Zinc - Shanghai zinc operates independently with narrow fluctuations, supported by a strong bottom. The domestic consumption outlook for January is not pessimistic, and the price range is expected to rise from December, projected between 22,800-23,800 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The market remains at a low level, with domestic aluminum social inventories below 20,000 tons and trading activity being average. The import window remains open, with overseas pressure continuing to transmit to the domestic market. Shanghai aluminum is still in a cost and consumption tug-of-war, with a price range expected between 17,000-17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market has seen a pullback, with active trading and significant stop-losses leading to market consolidation. Recent news from the Indonesian nickel ore conference has sparked market interest, with a significant reduction in nickel ore quotas for 2026. Current spot prices for high nickel iron are at 888 yuan per nickel point, with upstream price rebounds weakening support, leading to a cautious short-term outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with active market trading. Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices exceeded 110,000 yuan, with a price difference of 2,650. Despite high prices, market confidence in maintaining these levels is low, leading to limited trading enthusiasm. Total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, with downstream inventory also declining. The latest Australian mining price is $1,385, maintaining strong pricing. The overall market fundamentals for lithium carbonate remain strong, with short positions under pressure [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures surged above 60,000 yuan/ton. Expectations for tighter industry production quotas in 2026 and collective production cut plans from some companies have strengthened market sentiment. Current mainstream transaction prices are stable between 51,000-53,000 yuan/ton, primarily driven by replenishment demand. Recent increases in silver prices have pushed up non-silicon costs for battery cells, with pressures transmitted upward. The market is advised to monitor the effectiveness of breaking through the 60,000 yuan/ton level [12]. Steel - Steel prices continued to decline, with a slight drop in rebar demand and a small increase in production. Hot-rolled demand is recovering, with inventory reduction accelerating. Iron water production continues to decline, gradually alleviating supply pressure, while steel mill profits are marginally improving. The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with limited rebound momentum expected [13][14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fluctuated overnight, with strong global shipments expected as year-end mine output increases. Domestic port arrivals are also strong, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Demand remains low in the off-season, but previous reductions in iron water production have stabilized prices. The overall fundamentals for iron ore are loose, with short-term price movements expected to remain volatile [14]. Urea - Urea production companies are significantly reducing inventory, leading to improved market sentiment and transactions. Daily production continues to decline due to environmental restrictions, with slight adjustments in industrial downstream demand. The short-term market for urea is expected to strengthen [22]. Methanol - Methanol prices slightly declined overnight due to recovering import unloading speeds and weakening inland demand, leading to significant port inventory accumulation. The overall market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential upward drivers in the medium to long term [23]. PX & PTA - PX prices continue to rise, with PTA following suit. Short-term PX supply is expected to increase due to plant restarts, while downstream demand may decline around the Spring Festival. Overall, the strong expectations for PX remain, with limited upward space in the short term [28].