2026年投资展望系列之十：2026地产，关注好房子、好土地

Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, the land auction market saw a reversal with a national premium rate of 5.5%, up from an average below 4% from 2022 to 2024[1] - The land transfer fees in major cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu increased by 11% year-on-year, while the overall national transfer fees dropped by 8%[1] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes increased by 6% year-on-year in 15 cities, while new home transaction volume fell by 13% in 38 cities[1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - New home prices remained more resilient compared to second-hand homes, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand home prices have been declining since May 2025[1] - In November 2025, second-hand home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen fell by 1.3%, 0.8%, and 1.0% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 6.8%, 4.6%, and 4.8%[1] - The average price of luxury homes in cities like Shanghai and Beijing has increased significantly, with Shanghai's highest land price reaching 20.1 million yuan per square meter[1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, land transfer fees are expected to decline further, influenced by low willingness from city investment companies to acquire land and potential confidence issues among market-oriented developers[2] - The new home market is anticipated to focus on luxury and improved residential properties, driven by the cancellation of price limits and the introduction of high-quality land supply[2] - The second-hand home market may experience further differentiation, with quality properties maintaining prices while older neighborhoods face continued price declines[2]