2026年社融与M2能否利好债市？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the central bank is gradually downplaying quantitative targets and transitioning towards price - based tools, social financing and M2 are not decoupled from the bond market. The transformation takes time, and the central bank does not completely abandon quantitative targets. A decline in social financing is inherently favorable for the bond market. In 2026, the growth rate of social financing is expected to decline in a volatile manner, with the first and fourth quarters being relatively stable and the second and third quarters facing greater downward pressure. In particular, the disturbance of social financing to the bond market will significantly bottom out in the first quarter, so the bond market can be somewhat optimistic [2]. - The predicted growth rate of social financing in 2026 is 7.6%, corresponding to a new social financing of around 33.5 trillion yuan. The growth rate of M2 is expected to be around 7.1% [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Perspective on Social Financing and M2 in 2026 3.1.1 How to View the Growth Rates of Social Financing and M2 with the Downplaying of Quantity and Optimization of Intermediate Variables? - In November 2025, the central bank proposed to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually downplay the focus on quantitative targets. This sets the tone for the adjustment of the intermediate target of monetary policy in 2026. The growth rate of financial aggregates will decline naturally due to the large base and the shift from high - speed to high - quality economic growth [10][13]. - Downplaying quantitative targets does not mean having no requirements for social financing and M2. The transformation of the intermediate target of monetary policy takes time, and in the short term, the central bank still adheres to the "basic matching" principle [15]. 3.1.2 What Changes are There in the "Basic Matching" Principle? - Reasons for setting the "basic matching" principle: It is conducive to cross - cycle policy design, stabilizing the monetary aggregate in the long term, providing a scientific "anchor" for macro - policies, guiding market expectations, and stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio [15]. - Understanding of "basic matching": It does not mean "exactly equal"; it requires comprehensive consideration of nominal economic growth, potential output, and economic growth targets; and it is a medium - to - long - term concept, not a short - term one [19]. - By taking annual data as an example, the years when the growth rates of social financing and M2 were mentioned as "basically matching" with the nominal GDP growth rate are 2018, 2019, and 2021. The annual intervals for the "basic matching" of the growth rate differences between social financing and nominal GDP and between M2 and nominal GDP are [- 0.2%, 3.2%] and [- 2.4%, 1.2%] respectively. When refined to quarters, the time periods when the central bank quantitatively mentioned "basic matching" cover the third quarter of 2018 to early 2020, 2021 - 2023 (related to the economic cycle), and 2024 (switched to "economic expected targets") [20][22][23]. 3.2 Forecast of Social Financing and M2 in 2026 3.2.1 Total Forecast - Based on the predicted nominal GDP growth rate of about 4.5% in 2026, referring to the "basic matching" principle, the predicted growth rate of social financing is around 7.6%, corresponding to a new social financing of around 33.5 trillion yuan. Considering the strong base effect of M2 in 2026, the growth rate of M2 is expected to be around 7.1% [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sub - item Analysis of Social Financing in 2026 - Credit: The new credit in 2026 is expected to be around 15.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 5.6%. The rhythm is expected to be high in the front and low in the back, and the structure will continue to focus on the "Five Major Articles" [30][31]. - Government Bonds: The net financing of government bonds in 2026 is expected to be around 15.5 trillion yuan. The issuance rhythm is expected to be balanced and front - loaded, with the possibility of an increase in the fourth quarter [34][35]. - Corporate Bonds: The net financing of corporate bonds in 2026 is expected to be around 1.7 trillion yuan, with a rhythm of low in the front and high in the back [40]. - Other Items: The net financing of off - balance - sheet items is expected to be around 0 trillion yuan, and the total of stock financing, credit write - offs, ABS, and foreign currency loans is expected to be around 1.1 trillion yuan, with a rhythm of low in the front and high in the back [41]. 3.2.3 Forecast of the Rhythm within the Year - The overall new social financing is 33.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a stock growth rate of 7.6%. The rhythm of social financing and M2 is expected to be high in the front, low in the middle, and stable in the back. The predicted credit growth rates/ social financing growth rates/M2 growth rates for Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 are (6.3%/5.7%/5.8%/5.6%)/(8.1%/7.8%/7.6%/7.6%)/(7.6%/7.2%/6.8%/7.1%) [4][5]. 3.3 How to View Interest Rates When Social Financing is at a Low Level and Credit is Declining? - Currently, policies are downplaying the focus on financial aggregates, and the intermediate variables of monetary policy are shifting from quantitative to price - based tools [45]. - However, the relationship between social financing, M2, and interest rates does not change with monetary policy. A downward trend in social financing growth allows for moderate optimism in the bond market. The bond market is under less pressure in the first quarter [46].