2026年银行二永债年度策略：重“稳”轻“赎”，配短博长

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that duration volatility may have a greater impact on perpetual bonds than tail credit issues [1] - The 2025 bank subordinated bond market showed stable issuance with differentiated spreads, where the net issuance of tier 2 capital bonds decreased significantly due to a drop in issuance from joint-stock banks [7][9] - The report identifies three main changes behind the stable issuance and high volatility in the bank subordinated bond market: the divergence in bank balance sheet expansion, instability in the configuration of long-term subordinated bonds, and the dual nature of tail risks regarding redemption [11][19][24] Group 2 - In the primary market, the issuance of bank subordinated bonds is expected to remain stable, with state-owned banks projected to issue around 9,000 billion yuan in perpetual bonds and 2,500 billion yuan in TLAC bonds in 2026 [27][28] - The secondary market strategy suggests focusing on the stability of the liability side and the redemption aspect of credit, with limited spread space for short-duration bonds and sufficient spread for long-duration bonds, but ongoing instability may disrupt the market [30][41] - The report anticipates that tail risks will continue to exist, particularly for small and medium-sized banks, which may face pressures leading to either non-redemption or non-renewal of bonds [33][35]