磨底之年，蛰伏蓄势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - 2026 may be a year of bottom - building and momentum - gathering for the pure benzene and styrene industry chain. The supply - demand growth rates of both pure benzene and styrene will slow down, with no prominent contradictions, and the narrowing space of the pure benzene - naphtha spread and styrene processing margin is limited, but there is no strong driver for long - term significant expansion. In the long run, the industry chain may gradually turn around after 2026 [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Mainlines Were Variable but Supply Pressure Persisted Throughout 2025, and the Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operated Under Pressure - In H1 2025, the industry chain's trading mainline was to compress the valuation of pure benzene, with the BZN narrowing significantly and the styrene - pure benzene spread widening. The reason was the excessive import of pure benzene and the slowdown of small downstream growth, while styrene had low port inventory and unexpected supply disruptions. In H2, high production profits led to increased styrene supply, inventory accumulation, and the narrowing of the styrene - pure benzene spread. The core issue throughout the year was the large supply increment and elasticity in the industry chain [14][15] 3.2 Pure Benzene: Seeking Weak Recovery Possibilities 3.2.1 Supply Pressure from New Capacity Release Still Exists Next Year but Weakens Marginally Compared to This Year - In 2025, due to smooth new capacity realization and high import pressure, China's pure benzene supply increased significantly. From January to November, the domestic production was 21.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; from January to October, the import volume was 4.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%; the total supply increased by 10.3% year - on - year. In 2026, the expansion of pure benzene capacity will slow down, with an expected new capacity of 1.755 million tons per year and a year - on - year growth rate of about 5% [18][20] 3.2.2 The Favorable Outlook of Co - products Makes It Difficult to Reduce Disproportionation Operation Rates - In 2025, the BZN dropped rapidly, but the pure benzene disproportionation operation rate did not decline significantly because of the support from PX. The PX supply - demand in 2026 is expected to be tight, with an estimated de - stocking of 650,000 tons throughout the year. The high - running PXN will push up disproportionation profits, and the pure benzene industry's operation rate may remain above 78% [23][25] 3.2.3 The Supply - side Variable Lies in the Import Link - In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly due to the lack of diversion in the US Gulf and weak European chemical demand. The total import volume is expected to exceed 5.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 30%. In 2026, the key variable in the supply side is still the import volume. The benchmark expectation for the import volume is in the range of 5.4 - 5.55 million tons, similar to this year. If the overseas capacity exit rhythm exceeds expectations, there may be a slight decrease [28][43] 3.2.4 Pure Benzene Demand: The Five Major Downstreams Will Shift from Differentiation to Convergence - In 2025, pure benzene demand maintained high - single - digit growth but was significantly differentiated. The apparent consumption growth rate was 9.11%, and the real demand growth rate was about 7.3%. In 2026, the overall demand growth rate of pure benzene may slow down to 5% - 6%, and the growth of different downstream demands will shift from differentiation to convergence [44][51] 3.2.5 Pure Benzene Summary: The Supply Growth Rate Will Slow Down Marginally, and the Probability of Weak Recovery of the Pure Benzene Pattern Is Higher - In 2026, the supply - side growth pressure of pure benzene will ease marginally. The expansion speed of petroleum benzene will slow down to about 5%, and the petroleum benzene output may be around 24 million tons. The import volume is expected to be in the range of 5.4 - 5.55 million tons. The growth of the five major downstream demands of pure benzene will shift from differentiation to convergence, with a weighted growth rate of 5% - 6%. The annual pure benzene is expected to accumulate 20,000 tons of inventory, and the inventory accumulation amplitude will narrow significantly compared to 2025 [65] 3.3 Styrene: The Processing Margin Is Expected to Repair Slightly, but the Slowdown of Demand Growth Rate Will Restrict the Upside Space 3.3.1 The Expansion Pace Begins to Slow Down. Can the Boom Cycle Reverse? - From 2012 - 2019, the new investment in China's styrene industry was limited, and the domestic supply could not meet the demand. After 2019, with the rise of private refining, the styrene capacity increased sharply. In 2026, only one new 700,000 - ton - per - year styrene plant of Northern Huajin is waiting to be put into production, and the capacity growth rate will slow down to 2.9%. The industry may be in a year of momentum - gathering, and the cycle reversal may still need to wait [68][69] 3.3.2 The Existing Capacity Still Needs Time to Be Digested - In 2026, the new plants of Guangxi Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical will fully realize the supply - side increment. If the non - integrated device profit turns positive for a long time and the industry's overall operation rate rises to 78% - 80%, the annual styrene output may reach 18.95 - 19.44 million tons, which requires a demand growth rate of 6% - 8%. To achieve a cycle reversal, the demand growth rate needs to reach over 10%. The exit speed of marginal capacity has slowed down [72][74] 3.3.3 The Probability of Continued High Growth Rate of Downstream ABS Is Not High - In 2025, the styrene demand increased significantly, with the apparent demand growth rate exceeding 12% and the real demand growth rate around 10%. The demand increment mainly came from the high - growth of ABS production. In 2026, the high - growth rate of ABS may not continue. Policy support may shift from durable consumer goods to service consumption and general consumer goods, and ABS may shift from the inventory - building cycle to the de - stocking cycle. The styrene demand growth rate in 2026 may slow down to the range of 3% - 5% [81][93] 3.3.4 Styrene Summary: More Patience Is Needed in the Momentum - Gathering Stage - In 2026, the styrene capacity growth rate will slow down to 2.9%, but the existing capacity still has a large release space in terms of output. The styrene demand growth rate may fall to the range of 3% - 5%. The non - integrated device profit only needs a slight repair to meet the downstream demand growth. The styrene processing margin may rise compared to this year, but 2026 will be a year of bottom - building and momentum - gathering rather than a reversal year [94] 3.4 Not Pessimistic in the Long Run, and the Long - term Inflection Point Is Approaching - In the long run, the pure benzene and styrene industry chain may gradually turn around. The capital expenditure has slowed down significantly, and the signal of the end of the supply - side expansion cycle is more obvious. The export of direct downstream and secondary downstream products may have a greater impact on the balance sheet. The demand for pure benzene and styrene is in line with China's industrial transformation and upgrading trend, and the medium - and long - term growth rate center is expected to be higher than GDP [97] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the trading of pure benzene and styrene is still difficult. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels after the market provides a safety margin to play for the expected difference. Based on Brent crude oil at $55 - 75 per barrel, the styrene price range to focus on is 6,000 - 7,800 yuan per ton. In the commodity dimension, the long - term allocation timing has not arrived, but in the equity dimension, it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of targets with a relatively high proportion of aromatic hydrocarbon equity capacity [3][111]