Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-12-26 07:30Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price fluctuating between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are that the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppress prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibit consumption and year - end demand remains weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition provides long - term support but has limited short - term impact [3][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 25, the SHFE main contract price closed at 95,570 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 90 yuan from 95,660 yuan/ton on December 24, a decrease of 0.09%. The LME copper price closed at 12,133 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 78 US dollars from the previous day. The basis weakened, and the SMM premium copper discount deepened from - 180 yuan/ton on December 19 to - 280 yuan/ton on December 25 [1] - Position and Trading Volume: Overnight, LME copper's trading volume on December 24 shrank to 18,000 lots, and the position decreased to 340,000 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract shrank to 145,000 lots, and the position decreased to 244,000 lots [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: On December 25, LME copper inventory increased significantly by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons, an increase of 13.14%, indicating a loose supply. Jiangxi Copper announced the acquisition of SolGold on December 24, strengthening long - term control of copper mine resources. The CSPT meeting on December 25 decided not to set a reference figure for processing fees in the first quarter of 2026, increasing smelting uncertainty. In November, scrap copper imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 208,100 tons, supplementing the supply [2] - Demand Side: High copper prices suppress downstream demand. The SMM report shows that the spot premium in North China dropped sharply to a discount of 600 yuan/ton on December 25, and the refined copper rod market had poor trading. Year - end capital settlement led to weak提货 sentiment, and the market was waiting for the recovery of procurement after New Year's Day [2] - Inventory Side: The overall global inventory is relatively high. SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 157,025 tons on December 24; COMEX inventory increased to 479,540 short tons, strengthening the expectation of oversupply [2] Price Trend Judgment - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price range expected to be between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppressing prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibiting consumption and year - end demand remaining weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition providing long - term support but having limited short - term impact [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Spot Price: On December 25, the SMM:1 copper price was 95,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from December 24. The discounts of premium copper, flat - price copper, and wet - process copper all deepened [5] - Futures Price: The SHFE price on December 25 was 95,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from December 24; the LME price on December 24 was 12,133 US dollars/ton, up from the previous day [5] - Inventory: LME inventory on December 25 increased by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons; SHFE inventory on December 24 decreased slightly to 157,025 tons; COMEX inventory on December 24 increased to 479,540 short tons [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][8][10]