碳酸锂日报：产业与第三方意见分歧，碳酸锂后期阻力或将增大-20251226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, but the increase may be limited. The supply side is supported by the sharp rise in raw material prices, pushing up production costs. The demand side is supported by the growth of new - energy vehicle retail sales and high cell production schedules, but weak wholesale data and downstream sensitivity to high prices lead to cautious procurement. The decline in inventory reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 25, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate slightly declined to 123,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day. The basis strengthened to - 17,720 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.04% [1][35]. - Positions and Trading Volume: The position volume significantly shrank to 607,187 lots, a decrease of 6.21% from the previous day. The trading volume slightly shrank to 924,823 lots, a decline of 2.55% [1][36]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The price of spodumene concentrate soared to 12,330 yuan/ton, a 9.89% increase from the previous day. The price of lepidolite concentrate slightly rose to 5,975 yuan/ton, a 1.88% increase. The capacity utilization rate remained stable at 83.52%. The progress of the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group may increase long - term supply, but the current rise in raw material costs has pushed up production costs. Upstream lithium salt plants mainly focus on long - term contracts, and spot transactions are rare [2][37]. - Demand Side: The prices of downstream products generally increased. The price of power ternary materials rose 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton, and the price of power lithium iron phosphate rose 2.0% to 42,045 yuan/ton. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 1% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 60.6%, but the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year, showing demand differentiation. The cell price increased due to cost - push, but downstream buyers are cautiously observing high - price lithium carbonate, and their procurement is mainly for rigid demand and long - term contracts [2][37]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The lithium carbonate inventory slightly decreased to 110,425 tons, a 0.94% decrease from the previous week. There is no direct mention of warehouse receipt data, but the decrease in inventory indicates a tightening supply - demand balance [2][38]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the next one to two weeks, but the increase may be limited. The supply - side raw material price increase supports the cost, while the demand side is cautious due to high prices, and the inventory decline reflects a tight supply - demand balance [3][39]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate contract decreased by 0.96% to 123,520 yuan/ton on December 25, 2025. - The basis strengthened by 11.04% to - 17,720 yuan/ton. - The position volume of the main contract decreased by 6.21% to 607,187 lots. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 2.55% to 924,823 lots. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95% to 105,800 yuan/ton. - The market price of spodumene concentrate increased by 9.89% to 12,330 yuan/ton. - The market price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 1.88% to 5,975 yuan/ton. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 0.60% to 167,000 yuan/ton. - The price of power ternary materials increased by 0.88% to 149,300 yuan/ton. - The price of power lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.00% to 42,045 yuan/ton [5]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations: On December 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 105,138 yuan/ton, a 3,854 - yuan increase from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, a 3,400 - yuan increase. The overall spot market trading of lithium carbonate was scarce [6]. - Downstream Consumption Situation: From December 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 788,000 units, a 1% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. The wholesale sales were 782,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease [7]. - Industry News: - In 2023, the 100,000 - ton lithium salt project of Xinjiang Nonferrous Group started, which may affect future supply. - Recently, Wanrun New Energy announced a technical upgrade of its "120,000 - ton/year lithium iron phosphate project" to produce high - pressure - density lithium iron phosphate products [9][10]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on the main lithium carbonate futures contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources such as iFinD, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [11][14][16].