基于期货技术分析重点品种年度风险管理指引

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Based on the performance of various sectors in 2025, the report provides technical analysis and risk management guidelines for different sectors in 2026, emphasizing the need for refined and differentiated risk management strategies due to the significant differentiation in sector trends and price fluctuations [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - 2025 Review: The prices of non - ferrous metals showed significant differentiation in 2025, with most rising but with different fluctuation paths. Volatility varied among different varieties, with lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and nickel having higher volatility [12]. - Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook: - Copper (SHFE): In the medium - to - long term, it is still in an upward trend, with the next long - term resistance expected between 100,550 - 101,040 yuan/ton. In the short term, the upward trend is not smooth, and there is a risk of adjustment within the range [28][33]. - Aluminum (SHFE): In the medium - to - long term, it is in an upward cycle, but a strong trend requires a signal. In the short term, there is a lack of a strong upward signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction [39][45]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a bullish trend but lacks verification. In the short term, the sustainability of the upward channel needs further verification, and there is a risk of volatility [50][58]. - Risk Management Guidelines: In 2026, risk management should focus on "continuing trends but increasing volatility, with significant differentiation in variety strategies", using refined and differentiated strategies for different varieties [62]. 3.2. Black Metals Sector - 2025 Review: The black metals sector showed an overall oscillatory pattern in 2025, with raw materials more volatile than finished products. Finished products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils were under pressure throughout the year, while raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke showed a pattern of falling first and then rising [67][68]. - Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook: - Rebar: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a downward channel, and technical indicators show no signal of trend reversal. In the short term, it maintains low - level operation, and price fluctuations need attention [83][89]. - Iron Ore: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, lacking technical indicator signals. In the short term, the center of the oscillation range moves down, and attention should be paid to the lower support range [94][100]. - Risk Management Guidelines: In 2026, risk management should establish the core of "uncertain overall trend but coexistence of structural risks and opportunities", implementing refined and differentiated strategies [105]. 3.3. Energy and Chemicals Sector - 2025 Review: The energy cost side represented by crude oil declined throughout the year, dragging down downstream chemical products. There was significant differentiation among varieties, with high volatility in raw materials and building materials and relatively mild volatility in mid - stream chemical products [107][108]. - Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook: - Methanol: In the medium - to - long term, the long - cycle trend lacks technical guidance, and there is still price volatility. In the short term, attention should be paid to rebound opportunities, but sustainability and strength need more trading days to verify [128][135]. - PTA: In the medium - to - long term, the downward trend is not completed, and its sustainability is uncertain. In the short term, there is upward repair momentum, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations near the resistance range [140][148]. - Risk Management Guidelines: In 2026, risk management should adopt refined management, mainly using interval band operations when the trend is unclear and continuously tracking factors affecting price fluctuations [152][153]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - 2025 Review: The agricultural products sector showed an overall oscillatory and weak pattern in 2025, with significant differentiation among varieties. Feed raw materials and some varieties showed a downward trend, while sugar showed independent oscillations [154]. - Key Variety Technical Analysis Outlook: - Sugar: In the medium - to - long term, there is still a risk of decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to the continuation of the downward trend [170][176]. - Corn: In the medium - to - long term, it is in a triangular consolidation state, and attention should be paid to short - term price opportunities. In the short term, the oscillation center rises, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations in the downward channel [180][188]. - Risk Management Guidelines: In 2026, risk management should abandon simple judgments on the overall direction of the sector and formulate differentiated strategies based on the technical forms and volatility characteristics of each variety [193].