潮有暗涌，择舟而渡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's commodity options market entered a new stage of steady expansion, with 8 new varieties launched, increasing the total number of commodity options to 61. The market volume hit a record high, and the gap with the financial options market narrowed [1][14]. - The volatility of the commodity options underlying futures market increased, mainly driven by US tariff policies, domestic "anti - involution" policies, and the year - end precious metals market. This provided opportunities for volatility trading [2]. - In 2026, against the backdrop of high overseas policy games and slow domestic economic recovery, the pricing logic and volatility of the commodity market will show significant structural differentiation. Traders should construct refined and differentiated option strategy combinations according to different pricing logics [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 Annual Overview of Commodity Options Market Transactions - Market Expansion and Perfection: In 2025, 8 new commodity option varieties were launched, increasing the total from 53 to 61, improving coverage and industry depth. The listing rhythm was stable at first and then accelerated. The market development focus shifted from quantity growth to quality improvement and function deepening [10][11]. - Volume Growth: The annual trading volume of commodity options reached a record high. As of December 15, 2025, the cumulative market volume was 1.517 billion lots, a year - on - year increase of 42.43%. The growth was continuous throughout the year, and the trading demand was driven by the macro - environment and industrial cycle [14][15]. - Structural Changes: About 80% of the 49 comparable option varieties saw volume growth. The market focus shifted to precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The share of the precious metals sector increased from 14.87% to 34.65%, and that of non - ferrous metals from 11.52% to 27.98%. The shares of the agricultural and black metal sectors decreased slightly [18][21]. - Market System and Opening - up: The market maker system was comprehensively upgraded, and the opening - up pace accelerated. Multiple important commodity option varieties were opened to foreign investors, increasing the number of tradable varieties and enhancing the market's international influence [26][27]. - Decline of the Over - the - Counter Market: The over - the - counter commodity options market growth slowed down in 2025. From January to November, the cumulative nominal transaction amount was 2.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.62%. The decline was due to macro - demand suppression and industry - structural factors [30]. 2. Volatility: Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment Boost Commodity Volatility Levels - Historical Volatility: The commodity options underlying futures market showed a pattern of more declines than increases, wide - range fluctuations, and sector differentiation. The resonance of the commodity market was mainly driven by US tariff policies and domestic "anti - involution" policies. The historical volatility of the commodity index first rose sharply and then declined [36][42]. - Implied Volatility: In general, the implied volatility of precious metals and new - energy metals increased, while that of agricultural products decreased. Different sectors had different implied volatility characteristics and future trends. For example, precious metals' implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, and new - energy metals' implied volatility remained at a high level [44][51][54]. - Trading Strategies for Historical and Implied Volatility: Trading historical volatility aims to earn Gamma returns, which are related to the second - order change of option price with respect to the underlying asset price. Trading implied volatility aims to earn Vega returns, which are related to the change of option price with respect to implied volatility. Traders need to balance high Vega values and high implied - volatility elasticity [66][73][78]. - Trading Strategies for Implied Volatility Term Structure and Skewness Structure: The implied volatility of options is a complex surface that varies dynamically in the dimensions of strike price and expiration date. Traders can use term - structure arbitrage and skewness - convergence strategies to capture trading opportunities [80][82][85]. 3. PCR Sentiment Indicator - PCR includes volume PCR, open - interest PCR, and turnover PCR. The traditional correlation rules are partially verified, but the proportion of strongly correlated varieties is limited. When using PCR indicators, investors need to interpret them differently according to variety characteristics and combine them with other data for comprehensive analysis [87][88][95]. 4. Outlook for 2026 and Option Strategy Recommendations - International Macroeconomic Environment Outlook: In 2025, the global commodity market was affected by macro - trade policy adjustments. In 2026, although the trend of anti - globalization may solidify, policy volatility is expected to decrease. The focus of trade frictions will shift to key technology fields and strategic materials. The Fed's interest - rate policy, the US mid - term elections, and geopolitical risks are the key variables affecting the market [99][100][106]. - Domestic Macroeconomic Environment Outlook: In 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5%. In 2026, the economy will focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing prices, and optimizing supply. Consumption, investment, exports, local finance, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies are the key factors affecting the market [107][110][119]. - Option Strategy Recommendations for Some Varieties: For globally - priced commodities, strategies should focus on trends and volatility opportunities caused by external uncertainties. For domestically - priced commodities, strategies should focus on capturing certain returns and potential price - recovery opportunities in a low - volatility environment. For new - energy metals, strategies should balance long - term growth expectations and short - term high - volatility realities [120][121][127].