国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251226

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: Positive market sentiment supports price increases [2]. - Zinc: Moving in a sideways range [2]. - Lead: Declining inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continuously bottom - grinding [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Bullish sentiment dominates [2]. - Palladium: Oscillating upward [2]. - Nickel: Intense capital game on the trading floor leads to wide - range price fluctuations [2]. - Stainless Steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news from Indonesian nickel mines causes disruptions [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34%; Gold T + D was 1,006.45, up 1.44%; Comex Gold 2602 was 4515.00, up 0.77% [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375 to 276,418; the open interest decreased by 2,397 to 199,893. Comex Gold 2602's trading volume increased by 42,965 to 241,461, and open interest increased by 8,818 to 360,434 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1,995 to 93,711 kg; Comex Gold inventory (previous day) increased by 114,168 to 36,120,091 troy ounces [4]. - Trend Strength: 0 [8]. Silver - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16441, up 1.50%; Silver T + D was 16420, up 1.52%; Comex Silver 2602 was 71.610, up 3.65% [4]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 to 1,230,157; the open interest decreased by 921 to 340,510. Comex Silver 2602's trading volume increased by 30,063 to 127,435, and open interest remained unchanged at 114,525 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 1805 to 899,663 kg; Comex Silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 3,083,409 to 450,643,486 troy ounces [4]. - Trend Strength: 0 [8]. Copper - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 96,210, up 0.11%; the night - session closing price was 97680, up 1.53%. LME Copper 3M was 12,133, up 0.65% [9]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 81,418 to 477,230; the open interest decreased by 7,370 to 651,557. LME Copper 3M's trading volume decreased by 8,111 to 18,195, and open interest decreased by 2,248 to 340,000 [9]. - Inventory: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 6,861 to 59,083; LME Copper inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025, and the注销仓单 ratio was 29.63%, down 1.19% [9]. - Trend Strength: 2 [11]. Zinc - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 23065, down 0.71%; LME Zinc 3M was 3086.5, down 0.32% [12]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 46305 to 125213; the open interest decreased by 1875 to 93322. LME Zinc's trading volume decreased by 4941 to 5944, and open interest decreased by 646 to 227051 [12]. - Inventory: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1092 to 41319; LME Zinc inventory increased by 7900 to 106875 [12]. - Trend Strength: 0 [14]. Lead - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17315, up 0.52%; LME Lead 3M was 1999.5, up 0.83% [15]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 12922 to 55100; the open interest decreased by 210 to 56328. LME Lead's trading volume decreased by 1794 to 3806, and open interest increased by 167 to 178155 [15]. - Inventory: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 900 to 11457; LME Lead inventory decreased by 4200 to 248900 [15]. - Trend Strength: 1 [16]. Tin - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 344,750, up 1.27%; LME Tin 3M was 42,835, up 0.25% [18]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased by 11,222 to 228,643; the open interest increased by 31,914 to 61,161. LME Tin 3M's trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [18]. - Inventory: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 655 to 8,340; LME Tin inventory increased by 50 to 4,675, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [18]. - Trend Strength: 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 22275, down 55; LME Aluminum 3M was 2957, unchanged [22]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract decreased by 65183 to 229349; the open interest decreased by 6450 to 290474. LME Aluminum 3M's trading volume was unchanged at 11757 [22]. - Trend Strength: 1 [24]. - Alumina - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2646, up 92 [22]. - Trend Strength: 0 [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy - Trend Strength: 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum - Price: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 686.95, up 4.46%; the price of Gold Exchange Platinum was 591.25, down 2.59% [25]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum increased by 201,102 to 227.666; the open interest increased by 718 to 48.732. NYMEX Platinum's trading volume was 82,975, and open interest was 28,141 [25]. - Trend Strength: 1 [28]. - Palladium - Price: The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 529.05, down 8.54%; the price of RMB Spot Palladium was 416.00, down 9.37% [25]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium decreased by 2,565 to 100.293; the open interest decreased by 2,067 to 23.862. NYMEX Palladium's trading volume was 48.123, and open interest was 67.992 [25]. - Trend Strength: 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel - Price: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 125,410, down 2,590 [31]. - Trend Strength: 0 [35]. - Stainless Steel - Price: The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,990, down 85 [31]. - Trend Strength: 0 [35].