Report Industry Investment Rating - The PVC industry is rated as "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation, but the magnitude will narrow, and the toughest period for the industry may have passed [3][71] - The cost side will provide a relatively solid bottom - support for PVC, but the overall oversupply situation remains, restricting the upward elasticity and space of PVC prices. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton [3][71] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease, and the post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key catalyst for the phased market [3][71] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 PVC Market Review - In 2025, the domestic PVC market was dominated by the core contradiction of increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, with the price center moving down again and hitting a record low in Q4. The main contract price ranged from 4,220 yuan/ton to 5,373 yuan/ton [12] - The market trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: marginal improvement in H1 with price pressure from new capacity expectations; a strong rebound around July driven by policy expectations and coal price increases; and a return to fundamental pricing in Aug - Dec with increased supply and pessimistic export expectations [12][13] 2. Supply: PVC Industry Supply May Grow at a Low Pace in 2026 - 2.1 New Capacity Investment Pressure Will Significantly Ease in 2026 - In 2025, there was a small peak of new capacity investment, with a net increase of 220 tons/year and a capacity growth rate of about 7.4%. From January to November 2025, the total PVC output was 2,223.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [21] - In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 30 tons/year new device is planned to be put into production, with a capacity growth rate of only 1.0% without considering the elimination of backward capacity. There will be a structural vacuum period of new capacity investment from 2026 - 2027 [24] - 2.2 The Market Still Needs to Digest the Output Climbing Pressure of Previous New Capacities in H1 - New devices in 2025 were mostly put into production in Q3 and Q4, and their output contribution will be released in 2026. The market, especially in H1 2026, still needs to digest the real - world supply pressure [26] - 2.3 Low Profits Will Limit the Upward Elasticity of PVC Supply - Under the long - term low - profit pattern, the number of eliminated and long - stopped PVC devices continues to increase. Since 2023, nearly 200 tons/year of capacity has been long - stopped or eliminated [29] - Currently, both single - product and chlor - alkali comprehensive profits of PVC are under pressure, but the industry maintains a high operating rate due to winter conditions. If profits do not improve, enterprises may increase maintenance in spring 2026, alleviating supply pressure [31][32] - Overall, in 2026, the PVC industry will shift to a new stage of optimizing and digesting existing capacity. With low profits, increased maintenance may offset the output climbing pressure in H1, and the output is expected to grow by about 2.5% year - on - year [36] 3. Domestic Demand: The Downturn in Real Estate Continues to Drag Down PVC Demand Recovery - In 2025, the real estate market was in structural adjustment pain. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, new construction area was 20.5%, and completion area was 18.0%. The real estate industry will focus on high - quality development, and its recovery may take time, suppressing PVC demand elasticity, but the drag may ease [37] - In 2025, PVC downstream demand showed significant structural differentiation. Products highly related to construction, such as pipes and profiles, had low operating rates, while film products in consumer goods and other fields showed strong demand resilience [42] - In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor coverings decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, affected by trade protectionism and the downturn in the developed countries' real estate cycle. In 2026, with the expected interest rate cuts in the US and Europe, PVC floor covering exports may improve marginally [46] - In 2025, from January to November, the apparent demand growth rate of PVC was - 1.8%, and the real demand growth rate was about - 1.2%. In 2026, PVC demand may end negative growth and be roughly the same as in 2025 [50] 4. Exports Will Be the Core Variable Affecting the PVC Supply - Demand Pattern in 2026 - In the context of weak demand, exports became an important way to digest domestic surplus PVC capacity. From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 3.509 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.2%, and the export share increased from 11% to 16% [54] - 4.1 Removal of Trade Barriers in India - India is still the largest single export market for Chinese PVC. From January to November 2025, the export volume to India was 1.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. India's PVC demand has great growth potential, but domestic capacity expansion is restricted by raw material supply and power resources [56][57] - In November 2025, India removed the BIS certification and anti - dumping measures for PVC. Despite possible over - drawn short - term demand, exports to India are still expected to grow at a high rate [57] - 4.2 Comprehensive Growth in Non - Indian Exports - While exports to India increased by 14.2%, its proportion in total exports decreased from 50.9% in 2024 to 40.5%. Exports to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa also increased significantly [63] - Overseas supply is constrained by slow short - term capacity release and the clearance of high - cost capacity. The current export growth is partly due to the "source substitution" effect of the low domestic price [63][64] - In 2026, exports will be a key variable for balancing the PVC supply - demand pattern. Although there are uncertainties in trade policies, exports still have room for growth, with an expected annual export growth rate of 20%. However, the "price - for - volume" model is fragile, and exports are more likely to play a "bottom - supporting" role [69][70] 5. Investment Recommendations - Based on supply - demand estimates, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation in 2026, but the magnitude will narrow. The cost side will provide bottom - support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key market catalyst [71]
长河冰渐开，静流深未改
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-12-26 08:12