大猪供应偏紧，生猪近强远弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: The increasing decline rate of the breeding sow inventory in October and the expected high decline rate in November are beneficial to reducing the slaughter pressure after August next year [1][20]. - Medium - term: From now to May next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally remain at a high level. Although the sales volume of piglet feed decreased month - on - month in October and November, corresponding to a slight decrease in slaughter after April next year, the overall amplitude is small. The continuous growth of fattening pig feed sales reflects the continuous increase of the pig inventory in society [1][20]. - Short - term: In December, small and medium - sized farmers sold large pigs quickly, resulting in a short - term shortage of large pigs and a higher price difference between fat and standard pigs. The price difference stimulated some secondary fattening, which boosted the spot market and reduced the possibility of a shortage of large pigs during the pre - Spring Festival peak season. The period from now to mid - January is a phase of weak demand, but the high price difference between fat and standard pigs increases the demand for pressing and secondary fattening, offsetting the impact of weakening demand. Later, attention should be paid to the supply - demand matching during the pre - Spring Festival peak season and whether there will be early slaughter before the festival, which may reduce the post - festival supply pressure. For the LH03 contract, although it corresponds to the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is supported by the expectation of strong pre - Spring Festival spot prices and reduced post - festival supply pressure due to early slaughter. The far - month contracts are expected to fluctuate widely, and opportunities for low - level band trading can be considered [1][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since December, the live pig spot market has been weakly oscillating and rebounded slightly later. In the first half of December, the spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, was as low as around 11.2 yuan/kg, mainly due to the strong selling enthusiasm of small and medium - sized farmers and limited consumption boost. In the second half of December, as the pressure of selling large pigs by small and medium - sized farmers decreased and the slaughter demand during the pre - Winter Solstice peak season increased, the spot price rebounded. The futures market generally oscillated. The LH01 contract was the weakest, mainly because the delivery cost in the southern region was low, and the futures price returned to the area with the lowest delivery cost. The LH03 contract, corresponding to the off - season after the Spring Festival, strengthened, and the futures curve structure changed to a fully positive structure because the market was worried about a shortage of large pigs after the Spring Festival [3]. 3.2 Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Piglet data shows high future standard pig slaughter volume - The national breeding sow inventory reached a peak of 40.8 million heads in November 2024 and then oscillated downward. By the end of October, the inventory was 39.9 million heads, a reduction of 2.2% from the peak. Due to weak pig prices and continuous losses in breeding profits, the elimination of breeding sows is expected to continue to increase, which will reduce the supply pressure in the third quarter of next year. From the piglet birth data of various institutions, the piglet birth volume has been at a high level since June, with a slight decline in November. Calculated by the time cycle, the theoretical standard pig slaughter volume will be at a high level until May next year [5]. 3.2.2 Feed sales confirm a large inventory of social pigs - From July to September 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed generally increased steadily. In October and November, the month - on - month growth rate turned negative, but compared with the same period in 2024, the month - on - month growth rates of these two months were roughly the same. The sales volume of fattening pig feed had a relatively high month - on - month growth rate in October and November 2025. From the feed perspective, the inventory of social pigs is generally increasing, but the marginal growth rate may be slightly lower than last year [8]. 3.2.3 Small and medium - sized farmers' large fat pigs are digested faster, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs is increasing - According to the samples of Yongyi Consulting, the average weight of pigs sold by散户 reached the peak and then declined in mid - December, with the same rhythm as the same period last year, but the absolute value of the average weight was slightly higher year - on - year. The average weight of pigs in group farms declined in December, but the overall decline was not large, and it also increased year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs increased in December, consistent with the rhythm of last year, reflecting a shortage of large pigs after the accelerated selling of large pigs by散户[10]. 3.2.4 Consumption is generally flat, and attention should be paid to the performance during the pre - Spring Festival peak season - According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting an increase in domestic pig supply. The fresh - selling rate of slaughtered pigs has decreased, and the utilization rate of frozen product storage capacity has continued to rise, reflecting weak terminal consumption. Seasonally, after the Winter Solstice, the demand for curing pulses has passed, and the slaughter volume will decline. About 25 days before the Spring Festival, the slaughter demand will enter a peak - season strengthening pattern. Considering that the Spring Festival in 2026 is on February 17th, the next pre - Spring Festival demand pulse will start around mid - January. Whether the supply and demand can be effectively matched during the pre - Spring Festival peak season needs to be observed through key indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight [13]. 3.2.5 The industry continues to lose money, and there is limited room for cost reduction - Since the second half of September 2025, pig prices have declined rapidly, and pig breeding profits have deteriorated significantly. As the national average price has remained below the industry average cost of 12 yuan in recent months, the breeding profits of the self - breeding and self - raising model have also been in a continuous loss state. In the future, the price of piglets is still low, and the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will also be low. According to Yongyi Consulting's estimate, the expected cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets in late December has dropped below 12 yuan. From the perspective of feed cost, the prices of soybean meal and corn are both at low levels, and there is little room for further reduction in feed cost. The low pig price will continue to squeeze profits and may gradually stimulate the industry to reduce production capacity [17]. 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The long - term, medium - term, and short - term views are consistent with the core viewpoints of the report. For the LH03 contract, pay close attention to the further verification of indicators such as the price difference between fat and standard pigs and the average weight. Treat the far - month contracts as wide - range oscillations and consider low - level band trading opportunities [1][20]