政策扰动较多，油脂分化或持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat market in 2025 was greatly affected by policy disturbances, with significant differentiation among different oils. In 2026, the overall supply and demand situation of oils and fats will be complex, and the market will continue to be affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies [4][107]. - In the short - term, oils and fats are rebounding, but the rebound height is limited. In the medium - and long - term, if the US biodiesel policy is finally implemented, the production in producing areas is lower than expected, and the macro - environment turns favorable, oils and fats are expected to start an upward trend [6][108]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Oil and Fat Market Review - January - March 2025: After the Spring Festival, the trading logic switched from weak expectations to strong reality. International relations and the traditional palm oil production reduction season led to an overall upward trend in oils and fats, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rising significantly, while soybean oil rose slightly [11]. - April - May 2025: The differentiation of oils and fats intensified. Palm oil entered the production increase period and increased production and inventory, with a significant decline. Soybean and rapeseed oils basically moved sideways. The market rebounded due to the temporary easing of the Sino - US trade war and the US biodiesel policy bill, but then fell back [12]. - June - mid - August 2025: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the US biodiesel policy exceeding expectations drove the overall sharp rise of oils and fats. The "anti - involution" policy in China and the anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also contributed to the rise [15]. - Mid - August 2025 - Present: The driving force for the rise of oils and fats was insufficient. Factors such as the unexpected increase in palm oil production and inventory, the expectation of opening Australian rapeseed in China, and concerns about biodiesel expectations led to a high - level decline in oils and fats [16]. 2026 Supply and Demand Outlook Palm Oil - Malaysia: In 2025, the production of Malaysian palm oil recovered well, with an estimated annual output of about 20 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 700,000 - 850,000 tons. In 2026, the increase or decrease in production is limited, with an amplitude of about 500,000 - 1,000,000 tons. The high - inventory situation may continue until Q1 2026 [20][23][24]. - Indonesia: In 2025, the production of Indonesian palm oil increased significantly. The market has different forecasts for 2026 production. The implementation of the B50 policy is uncertain. There may be inventory accumulation in 2026, but the amplitude is low [40][41][44]. - Global: The market has different forecasts for the global palm oil production in 2026, with an estimated increase of 1.5 - 2 million tons in the combined production of Malaysia and Indonesia [45]. Demand in India and China - India: In the 24/25 fiscal year, India increased soybean oil imports and decreased palm oil imports. In the 25/26 fiscal year, it is expected to increase palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons due to the expansion of the soybean - palm oil price difference [50][52]. - China: In 2025, the import of palm oil in China reached a new low. It is expected that the import of edible oils in 2026 will not increase, and the import of palm oil will be basically the same as in 2025 [52][53]. Biodiesel Policies in Brazil and the US - Brazil: In 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Brazil was low, and the biodiesel production increased. The implementation of the B16 policy in 2026 is uncertain. If not implemented, the consumption increment of soybean oil in biodiesel will disappear, but there may still be some increment driven by profit [61][63][64]. - US: In 2025, the production of US biodiesel was good, but the profit was poor. The final plans of RVO and SRE are undetermined. It is expected that the demand for biodiesel will increase in 2026, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [74][75][76]. Global Rapeseed and Domestic Market - Global: The new global rapeseed crop is expected to have a good harvest in the 25/26 fiscal year, with an estimated increase of 8.7 - 9.3 million tons in production. The new global sunflower seed production may decrease by 370,000 tons [85]. - Domestic: The inventory of soybean oil in China is at a relatively high level, and the inventory is expected to decline after the inflection point. The inventory of rapeseed oil is at a moderately high level, and the price is strongly supported before the full liberalization of rapeseed [83][85]. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Oils and fats continue to rebound, but the rebound height is limited. The range of palm oil is 8,200 - 8,800, and that of soybean oil is 7,600 - 8,100 [6][108]. - Arbitrage: The price differences between rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm oils will expand in a volatile manner before the rapeseed oil inventory decreases and Australian rapeseed is not liberalized [6][108]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6].