股指转向进攻

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is turning offensive, and an upward market is expected to start before New Year's Day [65]. - China's stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation-driven' to 'profit-driven', with profit realization and moderate valuation expansion as the core drivers of returns [20]. - Global funds are re - investing in China's stock market, and the technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI [20]. Summary by Related Contents Market and Index Information - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 Index has the highest 'technology content' and is approaching its previous high [11]. - Institutional funds entered the market on a large scale through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3950 points [14]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 56% [20]. - The trading strategy for stock index futures is to turn offensive and opportunistically establish long positions in stock index futures mainly based on growth - type indices [21]. - The trading strategy for stock index options is to turn offensive and opportunistically open call options on the CSI 1000 Index [22]. Economic Data in China - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [23]. - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, reaching a new high, and 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened in November [25]. - China's export value in November was 330.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating that exports still have resilience [28]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a stall in manufacturing investment [31]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a stall in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [34]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, hitting a new low [37]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [40]. Economic Data in the United States - The US core CPI in November was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in a week was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [46]. - In November, the newly - added ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate lay - offs increased rapidly [49]. - In October, the total retail and food sales in the US had zero month - on - month growth, indicating a weakening of US consumption [52]. - In September, both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of US capital goods import value decreased rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [55]. - In November, the ISM manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating an acceleration of inflation in the US [58]. Situation in Japan - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared above 2.0%. The large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US bonds and stocks [61][62]. Industry - Specific Events - On December 6, LandSpace Technology verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket [7]. - The US and China are in a fierce space infrastructure competition, and the commercial space industry has entered a high - growth phase led by national will [4].